{"id":749,"date":"2024-01-02T15:31:37","date_gmt":"2024-01-02T12:31:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=749"},"modified":"2024-06-27T22:13:09","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T19:13:09","slug":"aralik-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/02\/aralik-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"Aral\u0131k 2023 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Herkese selamlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 66 ay olmu\u015f. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131yla birlikte olduk\u00e7a volatil ge\u00e7en 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 tamamlam\u0131\u015f olduk. 2023’\u00fcn genel muhasebesini 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi yaz\u0131mda<\/a> anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in burada tekrar payla\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131m, dileyenler o yaz\u0131y\u0131 okuyabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na bakacak olursak global piyasalarda Noel etkisinden dolay\u0131 nispeten sakin ge\u00e7en bir ay oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda %4 civar\u0131nda daha y\u00fckselen Sp500 endeksi y\u0131l\u0131 da %24.6 y\u00fckseli\u015fte 4769 puandan kapatt\u0131. Bu ayki toplant\u0131da faizi %5.25-%5.5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakan FED’in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te art\u0131k indirimlere ne zaman ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel tarafta piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacak. G\u00fcncel durumda enflasyon %3.1 seviyesinde. Enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in uzun bir s\u00fcredir reel faiz veren FED’in en az\u0131ndan ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonuna kadar bu \u015fekilde devam etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yerel piyasalarda ise aral\u0131k ay\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere sahne oldu. BIST100 endeksi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay\u0131n kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek y\u0131l\u0131 7542 puandan kapatt\u0131. TCMB faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 beklendi\u011fi \u015fekilde 250 bps art\u0131rarak %42.5 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. T\u0131pk\u0131 FED taraf\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi TCMB’nin de faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda zirveye \u00e7ok yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu konu\u015fuluyor. Ocak toplant\u0131s\u0131nda muhtemel bir 250 bps art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %45 ile zirveyi g\u00f6rece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Dolar\/TL y\u00fckselmeye devam ederek y\u0131l\u0131 29.48 TL’den kapatt\u0131. Alt\u0131n ise global kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klardan nasibini almaya devam ediyor. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda 2078 $ ile tarihi zirvesini g\u00f6ren ons alt\u0131n an itibariyle 2069 $ seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme gelecek olursak, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 her ne kadar BIST100 endeksini ge\u00e7mi\u015f olsam da $ ve enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yeterince reel getiri elde edemedi\u011fim bir y\u0131l oldu. Hem genel piyasan\u0131n durumu hem de portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel \u015firketlerin d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin alt noktalar\u0131na yak\u0131n olmalar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 TL baz\u0131nda %61.5, $ baz\u0131nda ise %2.53 getiri ile finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funa ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131mdan beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi kaydettim. Tabi 1 y\u0131l ile de\u011ferlendirme yapmak olduk\u00e7a yanl\u0131\u015f. 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CAGR hesab\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda TL baz\u0131nda %106, $ baz\u0131nda ise %46.4 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriye sahip oldu\u011fumu g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Uzun vadede bu rakamlar\u0131n bile ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 imkans\u0131z oldu\u011funu bildi\u011fim i\u00e7in ortalamaya d\u00f6nmek hayalk\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcncel portf\u00f6y durumu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda herhangi bir al\u0131m sat\u0131m i\u015flemi yapmad\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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ABD taraf\u0131nda bu ay etf’lerimden temett\u00fc gelirleri elde ettim. Gelen temett\u00fcler ile ayn\u0131 etf’lerden alarak ortakl\u0131k oranlar\u0131m\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131m. Hem etf\u2019lerim hem de hisselerim g\u00fczel y\u00fckseli\u015fler ya\u015fad\u0131. Zamanla bu portf\u00f6ye eurobond kuponlar\u0131ndan gelen nakitlerle ekleme yapmaya devam edece\u011fim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Eurobond taraf\u0131nda bu ay da al\u0131m yapmad\u0131m. Cds ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aydan beri ciddi geri \u00e7ekilerek 284 puana kadar geriledi. Bu da eurobond fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Eurobond getirileri %7.5’lar\u0131n bile alt\u0131na indi. Bu seviyelerden eurobond almak i\u00e7in i\u015ftahl\u0131 de\u011filim. Gelen eurobond kuponlar\u0131n\u0131n harcamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131 ile ufak ufak etf toplamaya devam edece\u011fim. Bu y\u0131l toplamda ise 5168 $ ile ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n %76 \u00fczerinde kupon geliri elde ettim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Toparlayacak olursam,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu ay toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm TL baz\u0131nda %3.5, $ baz\u0131nda ise %5.4 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m ise %108.5 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yeni ekonomi politikalar\u0131yla birlikte d\u00fc\u015fen cds primleri ve artan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fin sonucunda \u00fclkemize do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. \u00d6zellikle yerel se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 siyasi bask\u0131n\u0131n da azalmas\u0131yla ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin daha etkin kararlar almas\u0131 beklenebilir. \u015eu anda BIST100 6 civar\u0131nda bir fiyat kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131yla i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5 y\u0131lda 10-12 civar\u0131na gelmemesi i\u00e7in bir sebep g\u00f6remiyorum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gelinen s\u00fcre\u00e7te 2023 aral\u0131k ay\u0131 itibariyle cds 280 bp alt\u0131nda ve uluslararas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan not art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 beklentisine girdik. Bu s\u00fcrecin de aksi bir siyasi hamle olmamas\u0131 durumunda en az\u0131ndan 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar devam etmesini bekliyorum. \u00d6nce faizlerde zirveyi g\u00f6rece\u011fiz, ard\u0131ndan indirimler ba\u015flayacak. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6nce tahvil piyasas\u0131na ard\u0131ndan da hisse senetlerine do\u011frudan giri\u015fler olmas\u0131 olas\u0131. \u0130yi y\u00f6netilen, bor\u00e7luluk durumu makul ve b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u015firketler 2024 ve sonras\u0131nda da karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak, bu da hisse fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcm bunlar olurken inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m ve gelece\u011fine g\u00fcvendi\u011fim \u015firketlerde s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ya oturmaya devam edece\u011fim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Herkese selamlar. Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 66 ay olmu\u015f. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131yla birlikte olduk\u00e7a volatil ge\u00e7en 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 tamamlam\u0131\u015f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[5,3,7,8,6,4,34,15],"tags":[22,28,24,33,25,26,23],"class_list":["post-749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa","category-erken-emeklilik","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","category-hisse-senedi","category-portfoy","category-yatirim","tag-borsa","tag-eurobond","tag-finansal-ozgurluk","tag-finansalozgurluk","tag-fire","tag-hisse-senedi","tag-yatirim","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pexels-eberhard-grossgasteiger-707344-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=749"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":756,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/749\/revisions\/756"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}