{"id":728,"date":"2023-12-02T10:58:45","date_gmt":"2023-12-02T07:58:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=728"},"modified":"2024-06-27T22:14:04","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T19:14:04","slug":"kasim-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/02\/kasim-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"Kas\u0131m 2023 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Herkese selamlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 65 ay olmu\u015f. Bu ay k\u00fcresel piyasalarda ciddi bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Ekim sonunda 4117 puana gerileyen SP500 endeksi bu ay %9 civar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek 4600 puana kadar t\u0131rmand\u0131. FED’in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda sona gelmi\u015f oldu\u011funun g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, beklenenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelen enflasyon rakamlar\u0131 ABD tahvillerine ve borsaya al\u0131m getirdi. 2 ay \u00f6ncesine kadar %5 seviyelerinde bulunan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvilleri an itibariyle %4.2 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Bununla birlikte 2024 son \u00e7eyrekte ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenen faiz indirimi beklentilerinin gittik\u00e7e geriye \u00e7ekildi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemekte fayda var. T\u00fcm bu durumlar piyasalarda Noel baba rallisinin ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130\u00e7 piyasaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda TCMB beklenti \u00fczeri bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaparak fonlama faizini %40 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Toplant\u0131 metninde faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n devam edebilece\u011fi sinyali s\u00fcrerken y\u0131l sonunda faizin en az %42.5 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. TCMB beklenti anketinde 1 y\u0131l sonra beklenen enflasyonun %40 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck reel faiz verildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dolar\/TL ufak ufak y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131 28.91 TL’den kapatt\u0131. Alt\u0131n da hem ortado\u011fudaki devam eden kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar hem de FED’in faiz indirimlerine beklenenden erken ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi beklentisinin artmas\u0131yla 2000 $ seviyesini a\u015farak 2071 $’a kadar t\u0131rmand\u0131. BIST100 ise %10’a yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 az da olsa toplayarak kas\u0131m\u0131 %6.8 kazan\u00e7la 8026 puandan kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme gelecek olursak bu ay toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm TL baz\u0131nda %1.69 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken $ baz\u0131nda ise %0.49 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Hisse portf\u00f6y\u00fcmde en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 alan ISMEN’in ay i\u00e7erisinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bundan b\u00fcy\u00fck etki sahibi olurken EGEEN g\u00fczel y\u00fckselerek bunun bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti. Bu ay bir miktar EGEEN satarak fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha makul olduklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm TOASO FROTO ve VESBE al\u0131mlar\u0131 yapt\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ABD taraf\u0131nda bu ay al\u0131m yapmad\u0131m. Hem etf’lerim hem de hisselerim g\u00fczel y\u00fckseli\u015fler ya\u015fad\u0131. Zamanla bu portf\u00f6ye eurobond kuponlar\u0131ndan gelen nakitlerle ekleme yapmaya devam edece\u011fim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurobond taraf\u0131nda bu ay al\u0131m yapmad\u0131m. Cds ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aydan beri ciddi geri \u00e7ekilerek 408 puandan 330 puana kadar geriledi. Bu da eurobond fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Bu seviyelerden eurobond almak i\u00e7in i\u015ftahl\u0131 de\u011filim. Gelen eurobnd kuponlar\u0131n\u0131n harcamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131 ile ufak ufak etf toplamaya devam edece\u011fim. Bu ay toplamda 457.5 $ kupon ald\u0131m. Y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde ba\u015fka gelirim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in 2023’\u00fc de pasif gelir anlam\u0131nda kapatm\u0131\u015f olduk. Bu y\u0131l toplamda 5168 $ ile ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n %76 \u00fczerinde kupon geliri elde ettim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Toparlayacak olursam,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu ay toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm TL baz\u0131nda %1.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcse de $ baz\u0131nda %0.5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m ise %114.7 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yeni ekonomi politikalar\u0131yla birlikte d\u00fc\u015fen cds primleri ve artan \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilirli\u011fin sonucunda \u00fclkemize do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum. \u00d6zellikle yerel se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 siyasi bask\u0131n\u0131n da azalmas\u0131yla ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin daha etkin kararlar almas\u0131 beklenebilir. \u015eu anda BIST100 6.5 civar\u0131nda bir fiyat kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131yla i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5 y\u0131lda 10 civar\u0131na gelmemesi i\u00e7in bir sebep g\u00f6remiyorum. Yeter ki \u00fclke olarak dersimize \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak \u00f6devlerimizi iyi yapal\u0131m. T\u00fcm bunlar olurken inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m ve gelece\u011fine g\u00fcvendi\u011fim \u015firketlerde s\u0131k\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131ya oturmaya devam edece\u011fim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Herkese selamlar. Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 65 ay olmu\u015f. Bu ay k\u00fcresel piyasalarda ciddi bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Ekim…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[5,3,7,8,6,34],"tags":[22,28,24,25,26,23],"class_list":["post-728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa","category-erken-emeklilik","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","category-portfoy","tag-borsa","tag-eurobond","tag-finansal-ozgurluk","tag-fire","tag-hisse-senedi","tag-yatirim","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/pexels-photo-847393.jpeg?fit=1733%2C1300&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=728"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":744,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/728\/revisions\/744"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}