{"id":708,"date":"2023-10-07T16:37:16","date_gmt":"2023-10-07T13:37:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=708"},"modified":"2024-06-27T22:15:11","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T19:15:11","slug":"eylul-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2023\/10\/07\/eylul-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"Eyl\u00fcl 2023 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Herkese selamlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 63 ay olmu\u015f. Bu ay sonu raporu yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 seyahatinden ge\u00e7 d\u00f6nmemiz sonras\u0131nda da ailecek hastalanmam\u0131z nedeniyle biraz ge\u00e7 geldi. Hem sosyal medya hem de telefonla ge\u00e7mi\u015f olsun dileklerini ileten herkese \u00e7ok te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 k\u00fcresel piyasalarda y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n aksine olduk\u00e7a sanc\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. FED beklendi\u011fi \u00fczere politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyip sabit b\u0131raksa da sat\u0131r aralar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcrece\u011fini belirtmesi borsalar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde faizlerin %5-5.5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tepe noktas\u0131na ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve  indirimlerinin muhtemelen ba\u015flamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Fakat son birka\u00e7 ayda 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7inde de faiz indirimi olmayabilece\u011fi konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Enflasyon yap\u0131\u015fkan m\u0131 de\u011fil mi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ladursun FED reel ekonomideki durgunlu\u011fu g\u00f6ze alarak bildi\u011fini yapmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yurti\u00e7ine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise tekrar eski \u00f6nemini kazanan ve merakla bekledi\u011fimiz TCMB faiz karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en ayki s\u00fcrpriz 750 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerinen tekrar 500 bp art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131larak politika faizi %30 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131l\u0131rken hem faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n hem de miktarsal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n devam edece\u011fi vurgulanmaya devam edildi. Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma sonucunda tekrar eski g\u00fcvenini kazanmaya ba\u015flayan ekonomi politikalar\u0131 ilk meyvesi kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan geldi. Kredi notunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmese de iki kurulu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerini negatiften dura\u011fana \u00e7ekerken not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in daha somut ad\u0131mlar gerekti\u011fini belirttiler. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ay i\u00e7erisinde ayr\u0131ca OVP(orta vadeli program) a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, i\u015fsizlik ve kur beklentileri bu programda yer ald\u0131. Burada yeniden de\u011ferleme oranlar\u0131na g\u00f6re eurobond ve temett\u00fc beyan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n belirlenece\u011fi i\u00e7in ortalama $ kuruna dikkat etmem gerekiyor. Ortalama $\/TL kur beklentisi 2023 i\u00e7in 23.88 TL, 2024 i\u00e7in 36.78 TL, 2025 i\u00e7in ise 43.93 TL olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Beyan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n belirlenmesinde ekim sonu itibariyle son 12 ay ortalama \u00fcfe rakam\u0131 esas al\u0131n\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl sonu rakamlar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda son 12 ay \u00fcfe ortalamas\u0131 %65.55 oldu. Ekim sonu bu rakam\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc %60 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarsak eurobond ve hisse senedi beyan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 240 bin TL olmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"tr\" dir=\"ltr\">Yeniden de\u011ferleme oran\u0131 hakk\u0131nda<br><br>\u2705Bildi\u011finiz gibi hisse senedi temett\u00fcs\u00fc ve eurobond kuponu gibi menkul k\u0131ymetlerin beyan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferleme oran\u0131na g\u00f6re belirleniyor.<br>\u2705Yeniden de\u011ferleme oran\u0131 her y\u0131l\u0131n ekim ay\u0131 sonunda(ekim ay\u0131 dahil) son 12 ayl\u0131k ortalama \u00fcfe\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tP3qjs64SG\">pic.twitter.com\/tP3qjs64SG<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bay Tutumlu (@BayTutumlu) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BayTutumlu\/status\/1706658986592743740?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 26, 2023<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 genel rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 da verdikten sonra ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme ge\u00e7ece\u011fim. SP500 endeksi eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 4507 puandan 4288 puana kadar geriledi. BIST100 ise dolar\/TL\u2019nin %2.55 civar\u0131nda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ayda %5.27 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek $ baz\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Dolar\/TL 26.65\u2019ten 27.41\u2019e gelirken gram alt\u0131n 1663 TL&#8217;den 1629 TL&#8217;ye gelerek kan kaybetmeye devam etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme gelecek olursak, bu ay hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm %4.55, toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm ise %5.15 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek yeni zirve tazelese de endeksin alt\u0131nda performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fim bir ay oldu. Ayl\u0131k $ baz\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise %1.52 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ay i\u00e7erisinde herhangi bir hisse de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yapmad\u0131m. Sadece $ baz\u0131nda zirvesini g\u00f6ren T\u00fcpra\u015f hisselerimden bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak Alarko eklemesi yapt\u0131m. Ayr\u0131ca ay i\u00e7erisinde teslim ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z karavan\u0131n nihai \u00f6demesi i\u00e7in yine az miktarda Ege End\u00fcstri sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdim. Ge\u00e7en ay da yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fczere art\u0131k volatilite konusunda kendimi yeterince disipline etti\u011fimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Panikle i\u015flem yapm\u0131yor, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 heyecana kap\u0131lm\u0131yorum. Sadece \u015firketlerime ve neler yapt\u0131klar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor ve piyasada s\u00f6rf\u00fcn tad\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yorum. Bile\u015fik getirinin etkilerini sadece be\u015finci y\u0131lda bu kadar hissetmek heyecan verici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-jetpack-tiled-gallery aligncenter is-style-rectangular\"><div class=\"tiled-gallery__gallery\"><div class=\"tiled-gallery__row\"><div class=\"tiled-gallery__col\" style=\"flex-basis:41.34021%\"><figure class=\"tiled-gallery__item\"><img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-15.46.00.png?strip=info&#038;w=492&#038;ssl=1 492w\" alt=\"\" data-height=\"408\" data-id=\"710\" data-link=\"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?attachment_id=710\" data-url=\"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-15.46.00.png\" data-width=\"492\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-15.46.00.png?ssl=1\" data-amp-layout=\"responsive\"\/><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"tiled-gallery__col\" style=\"flex-basis:58.65979%\"><figure class=\"tiled-gallery__item\"><img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-15.47.57.png?strip=info&#038;w=600&#038;ssl=1 600w,https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-15.47.57.png?strip=info&#038;w=711&#038;ssl=1 711w\" alt=\"\" data-height=\"415\" data-id=\"711\" data-link=\"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?attachment_id=711\" data-url=\"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-15.47.57.png\" data-width=\"711\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-15.47.57.png?ssl=1\" data-amp-layout=\"responsive\"\/><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>ABD taraf\u0131nda al\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131 tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. G\u00fcncel portf\u00f6y\u00fcm VOO, SCHD ve SPYG etfleri ile Home Depot ve Starbucks\u2019tan olu\u015fuyor. Bu ay i\u00e7erisinde SCHD, SPYG eft&#8217;lerinden ve HD&#8217;den temett\u00fc ald\u0131m ve bu nakdi VOO, SCHD eklemesi yaparak de\u011ferlendirdim.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"434\" height=\"196\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.28.13.png?resize=434%2C196&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-714\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.28.13.png?w=434&amp;ssl=1 434w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.28.13.png?resize=300%2C135&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 434px) 100vw, 434px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Eurobond taraf\u0131nda bu ay 2 adet al\u0131m yapt\u0131m. Normalle\u015fen ekonomi politikalar\u0131yla birlikte d\u00fc\u015fen cds tekrar 400&#8217;lerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 da eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fckselince eurobond al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat do\u011fdu. Ben de bu f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011ferlendirerek %9&#8217;a yak\u0131n oranlardan ekleme yapmay\u0131 tercih ettim. Ayr\u0131ca eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda 950 $ kupon geliri elde ettim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-jetpack-tiled-gallery aligncenter is-style-rectangular\"><div class=\"tiled-gallery__gallery\"><div class=\"tiled-gallery__row\"><div class=\"tiled-gallery__col\" style=\"flex-basis:34.36903%\"><figure class=\"tiled-gallery__item\"><img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.31.28.png?strip=info&#038;w=549&#038;ssl=1 549w\" alt=\"\" data-height=\"436\" data-id=\"715\" data-link=\"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?attachment_id=715\" data-url=\"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.31.28.png\" data-width=\"549\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.31.28.png?ssl=1\" data-amp-layout=\"responsive\"\/><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"tiled-gallery__col\" style=\"flex-basis:65.63097%\"><figure class=\"tiled-gallery__item\"><img decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.31.48.png?strip=info&#038;w=600&#038;ssl=1 600w,https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.31.48.png?strip=info&#038;w=767&#038;ssl=1 767w\" alt=\"\" data-height=\"318\" data-id=\"716\" data-link=\"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?attachment_id=716\" data-url=\"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.31.48.png\" data-width=\"767\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-10-07-16.31.48.png?ssl=1\" data-amp-layout=\"responsive\"\/><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu ay hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm %4.55, toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm ise %5.15 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek hem TL baz\u0131nda hem de usd baz\u0131nda tarihi zirvesini yeniledi. Ayl\u0131k usd baz\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme de %1.52 oldu. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m da %123 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. TCMB ve ekonomi y\u00f6netimi taraf\u0131ndan rasyonel ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmaya devam edildi\u011fi bir borsada gelecek fiyatlamalardan \u00fcmitliyim. Bu esnada \u015ferit de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m ve g\u00fcvendi\u011fim sekt\u00f6r ve \u015firketlere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya devam edece\u011fim. Yat\u0131r\u0131mda ge\u00e7irdi\u011fim 5 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bile\u015fik getirinini sihirli do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 sonuna kadar g\u00f6rd\u00fcm ve ya\u015famaya devam ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herkese selamlar. Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 63 ay olmu\u015f. Bu ay sonu raporu yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 seyahatinden ge\u00e7 d\u00f6nmemiz sonras\u0131nda&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":289,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[5,3,7,8,6,34,15],"tags":[22,28,24,25,26,23],"class_list":["post-708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa","category-erken-emeklilik","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","category-portfoy","category-yatirim","tag-borsa","tag-eurobond","tag-finansal-ozgurluk","tag-fire","tag-hisse-senedi","tag-yatirim","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/pexels-kaboompics-com-6067.jpeg?fit=399%2C266&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=708"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":717,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/708\/revisions\/717"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}