Ciddi manada yat\u0131r\u0131ma 2018’in temmuz ay\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131m. Bu esnada elimde hi\u00e7 nakit olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in maa\u015ftan ufak eklemeler yap\u0131yor ve borsay\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordum. A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda kur krizi patlak verdi ve dolar 7 liralara kadar \u00e7\u0131karken borsa 80 binlere indi. Merkez bankas\u0131 dolar\u0131n ate\u015fini durdurmak i\u00e7in 625 bp art\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ve tekrar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7en usd\/tl ile birlikte borsa y\u00fcksek faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle 2018-2019 y\u0131llar\u0131nda yatay\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde bir y\u0131l ge\u00e7irdi. 2019 ortalar\u0131nda faiz indirimlerinin ard\u0131ndan tekrar y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine giren dolar\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in bol miktarda d\u00f6viz rezervi harcand\u0131(6.85 kalesi)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2020 Pandeminin patlamas\u0131 ve geni\u015fleyici politikalar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 2019 sonlar\u0131nda ufak bir rallinin ard\u0131ndan 2020’ye iyi ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131k ki mart ay\u0131nda t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 sarsan covid-19 pandemisiyle birlikte tekrar bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131k. Bu esnada maa\u015ftan eklemeler yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m portf\u00f6y\u00fcm hala \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckt\u00fc. Pandemi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc f\u0131rsat bilerek yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m evimi de satarak ciddi al\u0131mlar yapt\u0131m. Toplu al\u0131mlar\u0131 dibi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz mart ay\u0131nda yapabilsem \u00e7ok daha iyi olurdu fakat may\u0131s-haziran aras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m al\u0131mlar da uzun vadede ciddi katma de\u011fer olu\u015fturdu. Tarihinin en k\u0131sa ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fayan SP500 2020 mart ay\u0131nda 2300 puana kadar d\u00fc\u015fse de y\u0131l\u0131 3800 civar\u0131nda tamamlayarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2021-2022<\/strong> Naci A\u011fbal Krizi ve Ralli<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 global piyasalarda y\u00fckseli\u015flerin devam etti\u011fi, BIST taraf\u0131nda ise patinaj \u00e7ekti\u011fimiz bir y\u0131l oldu. 2 y\u0131lda bir kendi krizimizi yaratmakta usta oldu\u011fumuz i\u00e7in bu sefer de MB ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve negatife d\u00fc\u015fen rezervler nedeniyle k\u00f6t\u00fc bir y\u0131l ge\u00e7irdik. Borsada d\u00fc\u015fen hacimlerle birlikte fiyatlamalar sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f oldu. 2021 sonunda ve 2022’de %19’lardan %8.5’lara kadar suni olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclen politika faizi nedeniyle yeni bir dolar ata\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131k. Bu ata\u011f\u0131 ise KKM ad\u0131 verilen modern d\u00f6nemde ilk defa kullan\u0131lan bir finansal ara\u00e7la bertaraf etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Bu k\u0131smen i\u015fe yarasa da sonu\u00e7ta zay\u0131f rezervler ve k\u00f6t\u00fc para politikalar\u0131 nedeniyle dolar\u0131n tekrar zirvesini g\u00f6rmesi engellenemedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2022 ortas\u0131ndan itibaren ba\u015flayan ralliyle birlikte 5500 puana kadar t\u0131rmanan BIST100 endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 1999 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri en y\u00fcksek getirisini elde etti. TL baz\u0131nda %194, usd baz\u0131nda ise %79 artan endeks bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n portf\u00f6ylerini zirveye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2023 Se\u00e7im Ekonomisi ve Rasyonele D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren 2022’nin tam tersi hareket eden borsa yatay ve negatif bir seyir g\u00f6sterdi. 2023’\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda genel se\u00e7imler ekonomi ve borsan\u0131n seyrinde belirleyici oldu. Se\u00e7ime kadar bir \u015fekilde sabit tutulan usd kuruna ra\u011fmen 2023’\u00fcn ilk 5 ay\u0131nda borsa reel getiri sa\u011flayamad\u0131. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda ise yeni ekonomi politikalar\u0131 ve rasyonel y\u00f6ntemlere kademeli d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle birlikte usd ve borsa birlikte y\u00fckseli\u015f sergiledi. Haziran sonu itibariyle usd kuru 26.05, BIST100 endeksi ise 5759 puanda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yat\u0131r\u0131m hayat\u0131m\u0131n bu k\u0131sa \u00f6zetinden sonra \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te olabileceklere bakal\u0131m. ABD taraf\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde faiz indirimi beklentisi kalmad\u0131. FED enflasyon hedefine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 garanti alt\u0131na almadan para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyecektir. Buna ra\u011fmen y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri SP500 %16.4 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Yurt i\u00e7inde ise se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ortodoks politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyallerinin al\u0131nmas\u0131yla birlikte ufak da olsa yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fleri ba\u015flad\u0131. TCMB haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri 650 bp art\u0131rarak %15 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu, cari enflasyonun olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda olsa da do\u011fru y\u00f6ne at\u0131lan zay\u0131f bir ad\u0131m olarak tarihe ge\u00e7ti. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki toplant\u0131larda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n devam edece\u011fini ve %25 civar\u0131nda bir politika faizine ula\u015f\u0131lana kadar devam edilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bunun sonras\u0131nda enflasyonun ve kurun daha stabil seyretmesi beklentim dahilinde. BIST100’de ise topyek\u00fcn bir y\u00fckseli\u015f olmasa da sekt\u00f6r ve \u015firket bazl\u0131 hareketler olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Do\u011fru sekt\u00f6rlerde olmak endeksin \u00fczerinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme gelecek olursak haziran ay\u0131nda TKFEN al\u0131m\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015fka bir hareket yapmad\u0131m. B\u00f6ylece portf\u00f6ydeki \u015firket say\u0131s\u0131 13’e y\u00fckseldi. Otomotiv ve enerji portf\u00f6y\u00fcn %55’ini olu\u015fturuyor. Kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m birka\u00e7 ufak halka arz\u0131 miktarlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in burada g\u00f6stermedim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n ABD taraf\u0131nda bu ay al\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131 tamamlad\u0131m. G\u00fcncel portf\u00f6y\u00fcm VOO, SCHD ve SPYG etfleri ile Home Depot ve Starbucks’tan olu\u015fuyor. G\u00fcncel y\u0131ll\u0131k temett\u00fc gelirim 545 usd, temett\u00fc verimi ise %2.32 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Eurobond taraf\u0131nda haziran ay\u0131nda hi\u00e7 i\u015flem yapmad\u0131m. Normalle\u015fen ekonomi politikalar\u0131yla birlikte cds’te d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131 ve eurobond getirileri %9’lar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Bu seviyelerden yeni al\u0131m yapmaya i\u015ftahl\u0131 de\u011filim. Var olan eurobondlar\u0131mdan kuponlar\u0131 toplamaya devam ediyorum. Haziran ay\u0131nda hi\u00e7 kupon geliri elde edemedim. Temmuz ay\u0131 ise 1239 usd ile \u015fahsi rekorum olacak:)<\/p>\n\n\n\n Toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm bu ay TL baz\u0131nda %20.7 de\u011fer kazansa da usd baz\u0131nda %3.7 de\u011fer kaybetti. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde hisse senedi piyasas\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fini k\u0131sa vadede beklemesem de kurun h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi ve faizlerin artmas\u0131 neticesinde bir miktar daha giri\u015f g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bu esnada \u015ferit de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m ve g\u00fcvendi\u011fim sekt\u00f6r ve \u015firketlere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya devam edece\u011fim. Yat\u0131r\u0131mda ge\u00e7irdi\u011fim 5 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bile\u015fik getirinini sihirli do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 sonuna kadar g\u00f6rd\u00fcm ve ya\u015famaya devam ediyorum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 60 ay olmu\u015f. 5 y\u0131l \u00f6nceki halimize bir de \u015fimdiki duruma bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda kat etti\u011fimiz…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":665,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[5,3,8,6,4,15],"tags":[22,28,24,25,26,23],"class_list":["post-657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa","category-erken-emeklilik","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","category-hisse-senedi","category-yatirim","tag-borsa","tag-eurobond","tag-finansal-ozgurluk","tag-fire","tag-hisse-senedi","tag-yatirim","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/pexels-photo-775203.jpeg?fit=867%2C1300&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=657"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/657\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":673,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/657\/revisions\/673"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Ekran-Resmi-2023-07-02-20.56.07.png?resize=866%2C734&ssl=1\")
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