{"id":648,"date":"2023-06-01T18:39:09","date_gmt":"2023-06-01T15:39:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=648"},"modified":"2024-06-27T22:16:13","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T19:16:13","slug":"mayis-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2023\/06\/01\/mayis-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"May\u0131s 2023 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 59 ay olmu\u015f. Nisan ay\u0131 itibariyle se\u00e7im g\u00fcndemi piyasalar\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fam\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 tamamen etkisi alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Nihayet 2. turun sonunda belirsizlik sona erdi ve cumhur ittifak\u0131 parlamentoda \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu alarak se\u00e7imin galibi oldu. Bu, mevcut y\u00f6netim ve ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Buna birazdan de\u011finece\u011fim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global piyasalarda may\u0131s ay\u0131 genel olarak yatay ge\u00e7ti. FED may\u0131s ay\u0131nda faizleri bir kez daha 25 bp art\u0131rarak %5.25 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Her toplant\u0131dan \u00f6nce bu sefer pas m\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek yoksa art\u0131rmaya devam m\u0131 edecek tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ya\u015fansa da FED politikas\u0131ndan taviz vermeyerek planl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na devam ediyor. Bunun sonucunu da al\u0131yor diyebiliriz. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ABD enflasyonu uzun bir aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %5’in alt\u0131na indi ve resmi olarak reel faiz ortam\u0131 olu\u015ftu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

FED’in bu politikas\u0131n\u0131n yan etkisi olarak resesyonu g\u00f6sterebiliriz. ABD’de hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc haricinde neredeyse t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6r PMI’lar\u0131 uzun s\u00fcredir daralma g\u00f6steriyor. K\u00f6m\u00fcr, petrol, \u00e7elik gibi bir\u00e7ok emtiada daralman\u0131n sonucunda meydana gelen talep azalmas\u0131 nedeniyle fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum bu sekt\u00f6rlerdeki \u00fcreticiler i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc haber anlam\u0131na geliyor. Resesyonun tam olarak neresindeyiz kimse tam olarak s\u00f6yleyemese de 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7inde herhangi bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok az oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yerel piyasalarda ise se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011finin sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. BIST100 endeksi may\u0131s ay\u0131nda %5.82 artarak 4887 puana y\u00fckseldi. Dolar\/TL’de beklendi\u011fi gibi y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti ve an itibariyle 20.80 TL civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. Son birka\u00e7 haftada olu\u015fan kapal\u0131 \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki kur fark\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapanarak e\u015fitlendi. Bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te borsan\u0131n gelece\u011fini yeni kabinenin ekonomi ve faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n belirleyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz y\u00fcksek enflasyon politikas\u0131na devam edilirse BIST’in yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde reel getiri potansiyelini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6rmekle birlikte borsadan pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fan sekt\u00f6rler de olacakt\u0131r. 2023 i\u00e7in otomotiv, yan sanayi, havac\u0131l\u0131k, ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki \u015firketlerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olar a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme gelecek olursak, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda DEVA hisselerimin tamam\u0131n\u0131 satarak TBORG ve ALARK al\u0131m\u0131 yapt\u0131m. TBORG’da bekledi\u011fim potansiyel hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmese de ALARK ald\u0131ktan itibaren %18 de\u011fer kazanarak y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca ay i\u00e7erisinde ISMEN ve ALARK \u015firketleri temett\u00fc \u00f6demesi yapt\u0131. ISMEN temett\u00fcleri ile tekrar ayn\u0131 hisseden alarak ortakl\u0131k oran\u0131m\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 tercih ettim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcncel hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fc bu \u015fekildedir. Otomotiv ve enerji portf\u00f6y\u00fcn neredeyse %60’\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. Kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m birka\u00e7 ufak halka arz\u0131 miktarlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in burada g\u00f6stermedim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ABD hisse ve etf taraf\u0131nda bu ay d\u00fczenli al\u0131mlara devam ettim. Fiyatlar bekledi\u011fim seviyelerin \u00fczerinde olsa da daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131yorum ve d\u00fczenli al\u0131m yapmaya devam ediyorum. Bu ay 20 adet SCHD, 20 adet SPYG ve 3 adet VOO al\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdim. Bu al\u0131mlar neticesinde 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 temett\u00fc miktar\u0131 193 usd’ye y\u00fckseldi. G\u00fcncel temett\u00fc verimim %2.25 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurobond taraf\u0131nda se\u00e7imin ikinci tura kalmas\u0131yla sert y\u00fckselen cds’lerden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla y\u00fckl\u00fc al\u0131mlar yapt\u0131m. Hatta ABD etf taraf\u0131 i\u00e7in ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m nakitin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da eurobond al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in kulland\u0131m. Toplamda may\u0131s ay\u0131nda 7 adet eurobond al\u0131m\u0131 yaparak toplam eurobond portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fc 79 bin usd’ye, y\u0131ll\u0131k muhtemel kupon gelirini de 6208 usd’ye \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f oldum. Nisan ay\u0131nda ise kupon gelirim 428.75 usd olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Toplam portf\u00f6y bu ay TL baz\u0131nda %7.33, usd baz\u0131nda ise %0.46 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. G\u00fcncel finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m\u0131z ise %98.3 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 %63 hisse senedi ve etf, %23 eurobond, %14 ise di\u011fer ara\u00e7lardan(alt\u0131n, d\u00f6viz, bes vb) olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 59 ay olmu\u015f. Nisan ay\u0131 itibariyle se\u00e7im g\u00fcndemi piyasalar\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015fam\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 tamamen etkisi…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":210,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1,34],"tags":[22,28,24,25,26,23],"class_list":["post-648","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel","category-portfoy","tag-borsa","tag-eurobond","tag-finansal-ozgurluk","tag-fire","tag-hisse-senedi","tag-yatirim","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/mountain-landscape-2031539-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1440&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=648"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":655,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648\/revisions\/655"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/210"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=648"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=648"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=648"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}