{"id":624,"date":"2023-04-04T20:53:51","date_gmt":"2023-04-04T17:53:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=624"},"modified":"2024-06-27T22:16:13","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T19:16:13","slug":"mart-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/04\/mart-2023-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"Mart 2023 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Herkese selamlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 57 ay olmu\u015f. Deprem g\u00fcndemiyle ge\u00e7en \u015fubat ay\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan mart ay\u0131nda da se\u00e7im arefesinde tats\u0131z ve keyifsiz bir hava vard\u0131. Kendim de biraz bu havadan kaynakl\u0131 olarak finansal piyasalardan uzak oldu\u011fum, portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fc bile birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde bir kontrol etti\u011fim bir ay ge\u00e7irdim. Bol bol okudum, spor yapt\u0131m ve ailemle vakit ge\u00e7irdim. Uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n g\u00fczelli\u011fi de burada de\u011fil mi? Bir trader olsayd\u0131m piyasa iyi veya k\u00f6t\u00fc olsun s\u00fcrekli ekran kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda olacak ve kendimi i\u015flem yapma bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda hissedecektim. Bunun yerine arkama yaslan\u0131yor ve \u015firketlerimin benim i\u00e7in gece g\u00fcnd\u00fcz \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na izin veriyorum. Arada bir haberlere ve ayl\u0131k verilere g\u00f6z ucuyla bakmak d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemleri haricinde bir\u015fey yapmama gerek yok. Bunun ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ara\u00e7 oldu\u011funu yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flad\u0131ktan 5 y\u0131l sonra anlad\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mart ay\u0131ndaki finansal geli\u015fmelere bakacak olursak bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde hareketli g\u00fcnler ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay i\u00e7erisinde portf\u00f6y\u00fcnde y\u00fcksek oranda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli tahvil bar\u0131nd\u0131ran SVB ve Signature Bank FED’in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na daha fazla dayanamad\u0131 ve iflaslar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Asl\u0131nda daha sa\u011flam bir finansal yap\u0131ya sahip olsalar bu durumu atlatabilirlerdi fakat m\u00fc\u015fterilerin panik havas\u0131yla bank run yaratmas\u0131 \u015firketlerin bat\u0131\u015f\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131. A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek para \u00e7ekme talebi nedeniyle Amerikan hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 limitler dahilinde m\u00fc\u015fterilerin paralar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvende oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Benzer \u015fekilde \u0130svi\u00e7re’nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131ndan Credit Suisse’de operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 rakibi UBS’e devretmek zorunda kald\u0131. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki \u00e7alkant\u0131lar bir s\u00fcre daha devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan FED’in bu ay faiz art\u0131rmayarak pas ge\u00e7ece\u011fi beklentisi olu\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen FED sa\u011flam duru\u015funu koruyarak 25 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda herhangi bir \u015fekilde faiz indirimi olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek yaz aylar\u0131nda indirimlerin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlayan piyasada so\u011fuk du\u015f etkisi yaratt\u0131. Yine de borsalar ay\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerinde toparlad\u0131 ve SP500 3970 civar\u0131ndan ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mart ay\u0131n\u0131 4109 puanda bitirdi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130\u00e7 piyasada ise se\u00e7im arefesine yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa da siyasetle paralel olarak \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girdi. Se\u00e7im anketleri \u015fimdilik herhangi bir ittifak\u0131n kesin olarak kazanma ihtimalinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve se\u00e7imin ikinci tura kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da belirsizli\u011fi sevmeyen ve \u00fcrkek olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n borsadan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu. Mart ay\u0131na 5290 puandan ba\u015flayan BIST100 endeksi %8.1 de\u011fer kaybederek 4820 puana kadar geriledi. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde dolar\/TL 18.88’den 19.22’ye gelirken, gram alt\u0131n ciddi bir atak yaparak 1114 TL’den 1226 TL’ye kadar y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme gelecek olursak mart ay\u0131nda temett\u00fcleri geri yat\u0131rmak d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tek bir hisse de\u011fi\u015fimi yapt\u0131m. Potasyum s\u00fclfat tedariki i\u00e7in uzun s\u00fcredir giri\u015fimler yapan Alkim Kimya nihayet anla\u015fma yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve may\u0131stan itibaren \u00fcretime ba\u015flayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Ben de bunun \u00fczerine daha fazla potansiyel g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm i\u00e7in Otokar hisselerimi Alkim Kimya ile de\u011fi\u015ftirdim. B\u00f6ylece Alkim hisseleri yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 oran\u0131nda artarak portf\u00f6y\u00fcn %11.5’ine ula\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu ay VESBE haricinde t\u00fcm \u015firketler temett\u00fc kararlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131lar hatta baz\u0131lar\u0131 temett\u00fc da\u011f\u0131t\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 dahi yapt\u0131. Bu y\u0131l \u015firketlerin neredeyse tamam\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131l\u0131k gere\u011fi temett\u00fc da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m oranlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fcler hatta her y\u0131l temett\u00fc da\u011f\u0131tan EREGL bu y\u0131l kar da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu nedenle 2022’den 2023’e temett\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmem yaln\u0131zca %40 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Gelen t\u00fcm temett\u00fcleri geri yat\u0131rd\u0131m ve bile\u015fik getiri ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerini sa\u011flamaya gayret ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcncel hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm \u015fu \u015fekildedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

ABD taraf\u0131nda ise fiyat\u0131 bir miktar gerileyen SCHD etf’ine ekleme yaparak lot say\u0131m\u0131 30’a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131m. Bunun haricinde mart ay\u0131nda t\u00fcm etf’lerimden temett\u00fc ald\u0131m. \u015eimdilik bu temett\u00fcleri nakit olarak tutmaya devam ederek \u00e7\u0131kabilecek potansiyel f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 bekliyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurobond taraf\u0131nda bu ay hi\u00e7 i\u015flem yapmad\u0131m. CDS’in gev\u015femesiyle eurobond fiyatlar\u0131 tekrar y\u00fckseldi ve getiriler %8’lere geriledi. Mart ay\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek rakam\u0131 olan 668 usd kupon gelirine ula\u015ft\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Toplam portf\u00f6y bu ay TL baz\u0131nda %2.45, usd baz\u0131nda ise %4.2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. G\u00fcncel finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m\u0131z ise %100 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 %65 hisse senedi ve etf, %20 eurobond, %15 ise nakit ve nakit benzerlerinden(alt\u0131n, d\u00f6viz vb) olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yukar\u0131da da bahsetti\u011fim gibi bu y\u0131l \u00e7o\u011fu \u015firket k\u0131r\u0131lgan ekonomik yap\u0131dan kendilerini korumak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oranda temett\u00fc da\u011f\u0131tmay\u0131 tercih ediyor. Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f karlar\u0131 \u015firket kendi i\u00e7inde y\u00fckek ROIC ile de\u011ferlendirebilirse benim i\u00e7in uygundur. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u015firketler y\u00fcksek enflasyon nedeniyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalan \u00f6denmi\u015f sermayelerini bedelsiz art\u0131\u015f yoluyla art\u0131rmay\u0131 tercih ediyor. Bu, normalde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir fark olu\u015fturmasa da psikolojik a\u00e7\u0131dan piyasay\u0131 olumlu etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Herkese selamlar. Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 57 ay olmu\u015f. Deprem g\u00fcndemiyle ge\u00e7en \u015fubat ay\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan mart ay\u0131nda da…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":496,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":false,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[5,3,7,8,6,4,34,15],"tags":[28,24,25,26,23],"class_list":["post-624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa","category-erken-emeklilik","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","category-hisse-senedi","category-portfoy","category-yatirim","tag-eurobond","tag-finansal-ozgurluk","tag-fire","tag-hisse-senedi","tag-yatirim","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/pexels-photo-7925859.jpeg?fit=1880%2C1253&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=624"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":633,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/624\/revisions\/633"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}