{"id":535,"date":"2022-12-30T21:49:42","date_gmt":"2022-12-30T18:49:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=535"},"modified":"2024-06-27T22:18:20","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T19:18:20","slug":"aralik-2022-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2022\/12\/30\/aralik-2022-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"Aral\u0131k 2022 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Herkese selamlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 54 ay olmu\u015f. Bu ay ve genel olarak 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 hayat\u0131mda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli kararlar verip uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir y\u0131l oldu. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l sonu raporunu haz\u0131rlarken kafamda 2022’nin nas\u0131l ge\u00e7ece\u011fi hakk\u0131nda bir fikir ve planlar\u0131m vard\u0131 fakat finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan ve hedefledi\u011fimiz miktara sadece 12 ay sonra ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kesinlikle tahmin etmiyordum. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi ve 2022 hedeflerim yaz\u0131s\u0131nda<\/a>, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde maa\u015fl\u0131 i\u015fimi b\u0131rakma hedefim oldu\u011fundan bahsetmi\u015ftim ve bunu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdim de. Fakat bunu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m s\u0131rada finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m\u0131z yaln\u0131zca %57 idi. Neden maa\u015fl\u0131 i\u015fimi ve kurumsal hayat\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 \u015fu yaz\u0131mda<\/a> anlatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m, bu nedenle burada detaya girmiyorum. K\u0131sacas\u0131 bu y\u0131l kendim ve ailem ad\u0131na radikal de\u011fi\u015fiklikler y\u0131l\u0131 oldu diyebilirim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finansal piyasalara gelecek olursak 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 global piyasalar ve T\u00fcrkiye olarak ikiye ay\u0131rmak gerekiyor san\u0131r\u0131m. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ge\u00e7ece\u011fini ve SP500’\u00fcn ve NASDAQ’\u0131n bask\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorduk. Nitekim \u00f6yle de oldu. 2022’ye 4797 puandan ba\u015flayan SP500, %20.35 de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla an itibariyle 3820 puanda bulunuyor. NASDAQ taraf\u0131nda ise i\u015fler daha vahim durumda, 15.833 puandan ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %34.5 kay\u0131pla 10.384 puandan kapatmak \u00fczere. T\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelere tamamen ters hareket eden ve tahmin edilemeyen ise BIST100 endeksinin %186 de\u011fer kazanarak 1926 puandan 5509 puana y\u00fckselmesi oldu. Usd baz\u0131nda bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da 140 usd civar\u0131ndan 294 usd’ye yakla\u015f\u0131k %110’luk bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ile t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya borsalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k ara zirvede bulunuyor. Bunun sebepleri hakk\u0131nda uzun uzad\u0131ya konu\u015fabiliriz. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 ve rekor d\u00fczeyde negatif reel faizlerin yan\u0131s\u0131ra dolar\/tl’de ya\u015fanan sabit kalmayla birlikte alternatifsiz kalan borsaya yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar adeta ak\u0131n ettiler. \u00d6zellikle usd baz\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fin neredeyse tamam\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tamamlam\u0131\u015f ve y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyenler ihya oldular diyebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme gelecek olursak 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 rakamlar payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m ki iki y\u0131l\u0131n nas\u0131l gece ve g\u00fcnd\u00fcz kadar farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131labilsin. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn TL baz\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %82.3 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Usd baz\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise yaln\u0131zca %6 olmu\u015ftu. Toplam portf\u00f6y b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ise TL baz\u0131nda %89.5, usd baz\u0131nda ise %6.56 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022 y\u0131l\u0131na geldi\u011fimizde ise hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn toplam b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi TL baz\u0131nda %251 usd baz\u0131nda ise %148 oldu. Toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm ise TL baz\u0131nda %217, usd baz\u0131nda ise %124 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in hedefledi\u011fimiz rakama ula\u015fmam\u0131zda hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcn bu muazzam b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve karda oturmak b\u00fcy\u00fck pay sahibidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00fcncel portf\u00f6y durumu bu \u015fekildedir. Bu ay portf\u00f6ye hi\u00e7 ekleme yapmad\u0131m. 2 defa ise sat\u0131\u015f yaparak d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya nakit \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdim. Bunun sebeplerine birazdan gelece\u011fim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Yukar\u0131da bu ay i\u00e7erisinde bir miktar hisse sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131mdan bahsetmi\u015ftim. Bunun nedenini \u00fclke riskini da\u011f\u0131tmak maksad\u0131yla bir miktar yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma iste\u011fim olarak \u00f6zetleyebiliriz. Blogumu takip edenlerin bildi\u011fi \u00fczere uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r Borsa \u0130stanbul’da yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yorum. Yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m ilk g\u00fcnden beri borsam\u0131z\u0131n ucuz oldu\u011funu dile getirdim ve iskontolu ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015firketlerde karda oturmay\u0131 bildi\u011fimiz s\u00fcrece tatmin edici getiriler elde edebilece\u011fimizi vurgulad\u0131m. Borsam\u0131z hala ucuz ve \u015firketlerime hala g\u00fcveniyorum fakat finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funda sonlara yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a \u00fclke riskini azaltmak maksad\u0131yla bir miktar ABD taraf\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapaca\u011f\u0131m. Burada stratejim iskontosunun azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya bir miktar pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm \u015firketlerde ufak sat\u0131\u015flar yaparak toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn %15-20 kadar\u0131n\u0131 usd’ye \u00e7evirmek. ABD taraf\u0131nda hisse se\u00e7mek yerine yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131 etf’ler vas\u0131tas\u0131yla yapaca\u011f\u0131m. Bunun en \u00f6nemli nedeni oradaki piyasaya yurti\u00e7i kadar hakim olmamam ve binlerce hisse aras\u0131nda endeksi yenebilecek hisseleri bulma konusunda kendime yeterince g\u00fcvenmemek. Bu nedenle belirledi\u011fim birka\u00e7 etf vas\u0131tas\u0131yla endeks yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Hen\u00fcz herhangi bir al\u0131m yapmad\u0131m, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda twitter \u00fczerinden payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. Nihai hedefim toplam portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda T\u00fcrk hisse senetlerini %55-60 band\u0131nda, ABD etflerini %15-20 civar\u0131nda, eurobondlar\u0131 da %20-25 civar\u0131nda tutarak bir denge yakalamak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Burada vergi konusu da devreye giriyor. Bu, apayr\u0131 bir yaz\u0131n\u0131n konusu oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in burada detayl\u0131 girmeyece\u011fim fakat vergiyi minimize etmek i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131m olacak ve bunlar\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca payla\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eurobond taraf\u0131na gelecek olursak bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 5 adet eurobond al\u0131m\u0131 yaparak toplam eurobond portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fc 67 bin usd’ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131m. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda eurobondlardan 2935 usd kupon geliri elde ettim. \u015eu anki portf\u00f6y\u00fcme g\u00f6re ise hi\u00e7 yeni al\u0131m yapmazsam 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 kupon gelirim 4775 usd civar\u0131nda olacak. Eurobond taraf\u0131nda da bile\u015fik getiri makinas\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Bu ay toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm TL baz\u0131nda %14.88, usd baz\u0131nda ise %14.39 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m\u0131z %92’den %105’e ula\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcncel portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 %72 hisse senedi, %18 eurobond, %8 ise nakit ve nakit benzeri(usd, alt\u0131n vb) olu\u015fuyor. \u0130lerleyen aylarda nakit oran\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar daha art\u0131rarak yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fim stratejiyi uygulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Herkese selamlar. Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 54 ay olmu\u015f. Bu ay ve genel olarak 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 hayat\u0131mda \u00e7ok…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Aral\u0131k 2022 sonu portf\u00f6y durumu. Bu ay toplam portf\u00f6y usd baz\u0131nda %14.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131 %105'e ula\u015ft\u0131. Bundan sonraki hedefimiz %120'ye ula\u015farak 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k harcamam\u0131z kadar nakit biriktirmek. Hala bunu yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131ma inanam\u0131yorum ama BA\u015eARDIK...","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[13,11,3,7,8,4,34,14,15],"tags":[22,28,24,25,26,27,23],"class_list":["post-535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-barista-fire","category-coast-fire","category-erken-emeklilik","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-hisse-senedi","category-portfoy","category-tasarruf","category-yatirim","tag-borsa","tag-eurobond","tag-finansal-ozgurluk","tag-fire","tag-hisse-senedi","tag-tasarruf","tag-yatirim","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Ekran-Resmi-2022-12-22-20.43.36.png?fit=1226%2C814&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=535"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/535\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":545,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/535\/revisions\/545"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}