{"id":53,"date":"2020-05-29T19:03:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-29T16:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/29\/mayis-2020-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/"},"modified":"2024-06-27T22:25:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T19:25:06","slug":"mayis-2020-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/29\/mayis-2020-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"May\u0131s 2020 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bug\u00fcn itibariyle 2020’nin be\u015finci ay\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Ciddi manada yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 23 ay olmu\u015f. Nisan ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan sakinlik may\u0131sta da devam etti diyebiliriz. \u00dclkemizde nispeten azalan vaka say\u0131lar\u0131 ile birlikte, normal hayata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sinyalleri verilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. 1 Haziran itibariyle iller aras\u0131 seyahat yasaklar\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Restaurant ve cafeler hizmet vermeye ba\u015flayacak. Ayr\u0131ca yine haziran i\u00e7erisinde \u00f6ncelikle yurt i\u00e7i olmak \u00fczere u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131n tekrar ba\u015flamas\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. \u00dclkemizde hayat normale d\u00f6nme a\u015famas\u0131nda iken, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde vir\u00fcs hen\u00fcz tepe noktas\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. \u00d6zellikle Brezilya, Rusya ve Hindistan vaka say\u0131s\u0131nda geriden gelip bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeyi geride b\u0131rakt\u0131lar. Her ne kadar normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyalleri g\u00f6r\u00fclse de en az\u0131ndan y\u0131l sonuna ya da a\u015f\u0131 bulunana kadar bir \u015fekilde hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 etkilemeye devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/div>\n
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Piyasalar da vir\u00fcs konusundaki iyimserlikten nasibini ald\u0131. SP500 neredeyse COVID-19 krizindeki t\u00fcm kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geri alarak 3000 puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD GSYH verileri ilk \u00e7eyrekte ABD ekonomisinin %5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterse de piyasa bunu g\u00f6zard\u0131 etmeye devam ediyor. Son 2,5 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurusu yapan ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131 40 milyon oldu. Piyasaya da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lan paran\u0131n etkisi sonucu artan likiditenin borsalara gelmesiyle \u00f6zellikle small cap hisselerde ciddi y\u00fckseli\u015fler g\u00f6rmeye devam ediyoruz. A\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n da yasak olmas\u0131 neticesinde baz\u0131 \u015firketler ederlerinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde fiyatlamalara sahne oluyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde borsaya 250 bin yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n girdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun sermayesi 0-100 bin TL aras\u0131nda. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te piyasaya giren ve g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck finansal okuryazarl\u0131k ile iyi paralar kazanan bu kesimin i\u00e7inden \u00f6zellikle \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte bir\u00e7ok ma\u011fdur \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. BIST100 101.110 puandan ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131n\u0131 %4 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fle 105.520 puandan kapatt\u0131. USD\/TRY Nisan ay\u0131n\u0131 6.99’dan tamamlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131, May\u0131s sonunda ise 6.82 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Gram alt\u0131n ise 383 liradan ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131n\u0131n son i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde 379 liradan fiyatlan\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan da y\u00fckseli\u015flere sahne olduk. \u015eu anda Brent Petrol 36 dolar civar\u0131ndan i\u015flem g\u00f6rmekte.<\/div>\n
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Portf\u00f6y durumuna gelecek olursak May\u0131s ay\u0131na 231.008 liradan ba\u015flayan hisse senedi portfoy\u00fcm \u015fu anda 258.920 lira seviyesinde bulunuyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda piyasalar her ne kadar durgunsa, portf\u00f6y\u00fcm de bir o kadar hareketli idi. \u00d6zellikle tavan serilerinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde portfoy\u00fcmde en fazla paya sahip olan ALKIM hissesinde sert hareketler ya\u015fand\u0131. %506 oran\u0131nda bedelsiz sermaye art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131ktan sonra sirketin hisse fiyatlar\u0131 adeta roketleyerek 19 liralara kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Burada bir\u00e7ok etmen var tabiki fakat ederinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine spek\u00fclatif olarak \u00e7\u0131kan hisse fiyatlar\u0131 beni rahats\u0131z etti ve 15-19 TL aras\u0131ndan hisselerimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %40’\u0131n\u0131 satarak maliyetimi s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na indirdim. Elde etti\u011fim nakiti de ucuz g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm di\u011fer hisselerime da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131m. Daha sonras\u0131nda da beklenen oldu ve fiyatlar aniden d\u00fc\u015ferek bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fiyi ma\u011fdur etti. Portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki di\u011fer hisseler g\u00f6rece sakin bir ay ge\u00e7irdiler. HEKTS yeni bir \u015firket sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. \u00d6zellikle ihracat y\u00f6n\u00fc kuvvetli olan bu \u015firketin HEKTS’a g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikar. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn hafifledi\u011fi beklentisi ve yasaklar\u0131n gev\u015femesiyle TOASO ve TUPRS hareketlendiler. Di\u011fer \u015firketler hen\u00fcz sakinli\u011fini koruyor.<\/div>\n
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Bu ay yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m al\u0131mlar;<\/div>\n
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TOASO 360 lot<\/div>\n
PETKM 800 lot<\/div>\n
TUPRS 85 lot<\/div>\n
KORDS 489 lot<\/div>\n
ANHYT 250 lot<\/div>\n
EREGL 150 lot<\/div>\n
ALKIM 72 lot<\/div>\n
JANTS 150 lot<\/div>\n
EGEEN 1 lot<\/div>\n
SODA 140 lot<\/div>\n
GLDTRf 5 lot<\/div>\n
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Sat\u0131\u015flar ise;<\/div>\n
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ALKIM 1859 lot olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/div>\n
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Toplamda 28.992 TL’lik sat\u0131\u015f, 34.771 TL’lik al\u0131m yapt\u0131m. \u00d6zellikle ucuz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm hisselerde ek al\u0131mlar yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Bu ay portf\u00f6yde yeni bir hisse g\u00f6r\u00fcyorsunuz. Bir s\u00fcredir ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131m ve s\u00fcrekli artan faaliyet kar\u0131, d\u00fczg\u00fcn y\u00f6netimi ve artan ihracat oran\u0131 ile be\u011fendi\u011fim JANTS’dan ortalama 54.2 TL fiyatla 150 lot al\u0131m yapt\u0131m. Ben ald\u0131ktan sonra rahat durmad\u0131 tabi, y\u00fckselmeye devam etti:) Bu y\u00fczden daha fazla al\u0131m yapma f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 elde edemedim. \u0130leriki aylarda fiyat\u0131n daha uygun hale gelirse ekleme yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ayr\u0131ca portf\u00f6ye \u00e7erezlik miktarda alt\u0131n fonu ekledim. En az\u0131ndan ev han\u0131mlar\u0131 ile portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fczde ortak bir enstr\u00fcman olsun:)<\/div>\n
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G\u00fcncel portf\u00f6y durumu bu \u015fekildedir. Yine portf\u00f6y devir h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir ay oldu fakat bu sefer su\u00e7 bende de\u011fil, dengesiz y\u00fckselen ALKIM’de:) Maliyetimi s\u0131f\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken biraz fazla sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131mdan dolay\u0131 maliyetim -0.83 liraya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu nedenle temett\u00fc verimi ve kar y\u00fczdesi k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 mutlak de\u011fer olarak ald\u0131m. Bu aydan itibaren raporlarda hisse maliyetlerime de yer verece\u011fim. \u00d6zellikle yeni ba\u015flayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nlenmemesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ayr\u0131ca temett\u00fc verimini cari fiyattan de\u011fil de maliyete g\u00f6re belirtmenin daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa karar verdim.<\/div>\n
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B\u00f6ylece 12 ayda alaca\u011f\u0131m muhtemel temett\u00fc miktar\u0131 12.692 TL oldu.<\/div>\n
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Eurobond taraf\u0131nda bu ay\u0131 pas ge\u00e7tim. Elimde yeterli miktarda vadesiz d\u00f6viz yoktu, \u00f6zellikle son gelen kambiyo vergisinden sonra eurobond al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 da daha seyrek yapmaya karar verdim. M\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca dolar al\u0131m sat\u0131m komisyonu vermek istemiyorum. CDS ler y\u00fcksek seyretse de ay sonuna do\u011fru biraz gev\u015fedi ve \u015fu s\u0131ralar 540 seviyelerinde.<\/div>\n
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B\u00f6ylece 12 ayda elde edece\u011fim toplam pasif gelir miktar\u0131 37.458 TL oldu. Son 12 ayl\u0131k pasif gelir\/harcama oran\u0131m %78.85’ten %79.99’a y\u00fckseldi. \u015eu anki harcamalar\u0131m\u0131 baz al\u0131rsak 292 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015f durumday\u0131m. USD bazl\u0131 finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck seviyem %36.62 yoksulluk s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 bazl\u0131 seviye ise %39.30 oldu. Dolar\u0131n bu ay nispeten de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle rahat bir nefes ald\u0131k. Portfoy\u00fcm ilk defa 100 bin dolar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. Berkshire Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Charlie Munger \u015f\u00f6yle diyor:<\/div>\n
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\u201c\u0130lk 100 bin \u00e7ok zordur ama bunu yapmak zorundas\u0131n\u0131z. Her yere y\u00fcr\u00fcyerek mi gidersiniz, yoksa kuponlarla al\u0131nan \u015feyleri mi yersiniz, umrumda de\u011fil\u2026 \u0130lk 100.000$\u2019\u0131 biriktirmek i\u00e7in bir yol bulun. Ondan sonra aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 gazdan biraz \u00e7ekebilirsiniz.\u201d San\u0131r\u0131m art\u0131k birazc\u0131k aya\u011f\u0131m\u0131 gazdan \u00e7ekebilirim:)<\/div>\n
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G\u00fcncel pasif gelir durumu ve portf\u00f6y durumu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r. Bu ay endeks fazla de\u011fer kazanmasa da portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki baz\u0131 hisselerin kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 sonucu borsa taraf\u0131nda %12.5 civar\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oldu. Eurobond taraf\u0131nda dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fme olmazken toplam portf\u00f6y b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc %4.96 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131. TL baz\u0131nda ge\u00e7en ay\u0131 669.403 liradan kapatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k, bu ay 700 bin baraj\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7erek 701.462 liraya ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olduk. Dolar baz\u0131nda ise aylard\u0131r patinaj \u00e7eken portf\u00f6y s\u0131\u00e7rama yaparak %7.65 de\u011fer kazanc\u0131 ile 102.800 usd seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/div>\n
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Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131ma devam…<\/div>\n
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Bay Tutumlu<\/div>\n
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Bug\u00fcn itibariyle 2020’nin be\u015finci ay\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Ciddi manada yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 23 ay olmu\u015f. Nisan ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan sakinlik may\u0131sta da devam etti diyebiliriz. \u00dclkemizde nispeten…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[5,3,7,8,6,4,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-borsa","category-erken-emeklilik","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","category-hisse-senedi","category-portfoy","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":863,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53\/revisions\/863"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}