{"id":516,"date":"2022-11-30T20:55:09","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T17:55:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=516"},"modified":"2024-06-27T22:18:20","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T19:18:20","slug":"kasim-2022-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/30\/kasim-2022-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"Kas\u0131m 2022 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Herkese selamlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 53 ay olmu\u015f. Yava\u015f yava\u015f be\u015finci y\u0131l\u0131n da sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7erisinde piyasan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 karamsar g\u00fcnlerini de g\u00f6rd\u00fck, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki ayda oldu\u011fu gibi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 co\u015fkulu oldu\u011fu g\u00fcnleri de. En son aral\u0131k 2020 sonu portf\u00f6y raporunda buna benzer bir durumu dile getirmi\u015ftim. O zaman d\u00fc\u015fen faiz oranlar\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 likiditenin borsaya y\u00f6nelmesi hikayesi vard\u0131. \u015eimdi ise globalden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak yerelde negatif reel faiz ortam\u0131nda gidecek yeri olmayan sermayenin borsaya ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz. Bu s\u00fcrecin se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesine denk gelmesi de siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin borsa hakk\u0131nda yorumlar yapmas\u0131na neden oldu. T\u00fcm bu karma\u015f\u0131k ve kaotik s\u00fcre\u00e7te makro piyasalardan \u00e7ok fazla etkilenmeden kendi portf\u00f6y\u00fcme odaklanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu arada \u015fu konu yanl\u0131\u015f anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n. Makro piyasalardan etkilenmiyorum demek takip etmiyorum anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. \u015eirketlerimin sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131klar\u0131 pazarlardaki resesyon belirtileri, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn globaldeki durumu vb. parametreleri takip ediyorum. Demeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u015fey FED’in ya da ECB’nin faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131, s\u00fcresini, nihai faiz oranlar\u0131 gibi kontrol ve tahmin edemeyece\u011fim s\u00fcre\u00e7leri kullanarak piyasa zamanlamas\u0131 yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yorum. \u00d6zellikle \u00fclkemiz borsas\u0131nda hareketler \u00e7ok ani ve h\u0131zl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. 5-6 ay hatta 1 y\u0131l yatay giden piyasa bir anda hareketlenip 2-3 hafta i\u00e7erisinde inan\u0131lmaz bir alfa yaratabiliyor. E\u011fer nakitteyseniz ve bu 3 haftay\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131ysan\u0131z reel getiriniz epey d\u00fc\u015febiliyor. Bu nedenle kaliteli ve ucuz \u015firketlerde d\u00fczenli al\u0131m yap\u0131p piyasan\u0131n bunu g\u00f6rmesini beklemek bana g\u00f6re en mant\u0131kl\u0131 ve az riskli se\u00e7enek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu ay ABD taraf\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7en enflasyon rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckselen bir borsa performans\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Ekim ay\u0131nda 3500’l\u00fc seviyelere kadar gerilemi\u015f olan SP500 kas\u0131m ay\u0131n\u0131 %2’lik hafif bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapatt\u0131 ve an itibariyle 3952 puanda bulunuyor. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re ise hala %17.6 geride bulunuyor. FED bu ay da s\u00fcrpriz yapmad\u0131 ve 75 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yaparak faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 %3.75-4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan tutanaklarda ise faiz art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flayabilece\u011fi ve muhtemelen bir sonraki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 50 bp olabilece\u011fi beklentisi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazand\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yurti\u00e7i taraf\u0131nda ise s\u00fcrpriz olmad\u0131 ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 150 bp indirim yaparak faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 %9’a getirdi. Reel piyasa ile pek ilgisi kalmayan ve \u00e7o\u011fu ki\u015finin takip dahi etmedi\u011fi faiz oranlar\u0131 ancak kredi kart\u0131ndan nakit avans \u00e7ekenleri ilgilendiriyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor:) A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131, ayr\u0131ca dolar\u0131n sabit kalmas\u0131\/tutulmas\u0131 borsaya olan ilgiyi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede art\u0131rd\u0131 ve pay piyasalar\u0131 ilk defa 3 milyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 baraj\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f oldu. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te borsaya giren yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131(!) kitlesi 2020 sonunda oldu\u011fu gibi pop\u00fcler hisselerde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131 ve bu hisselerin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyatlanmas\u0131na neden oldu. Ay ortas\u0131ndan sonra ise olduk\u00e7a \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 bir piyasa g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u00d6zellikle BIST30 hisselerinden SASA ve HEKTS ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok pop\u00fcler hissede volatilite \u00fcst d\u00fczeydeydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ki\u015fisel portf\u00f6y\u00fcme gelecek olursak bu ay hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm ge\u00e7en ay\u0131n da \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kazanarak yeni rekorlara imza att\u0131. Y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131rtlayan EGEEN, TUPRS, VESBE, ISMEN, KMPUR ve OTKAR oldu. Ay i\u00e7erisinde twitterdan yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fczere fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi nedeniyle HEKTS hisselerimin tamam\u0131n\u0131 kademeli olarak satt\u0131m. Gelen kaynak ile FROTO, PARSN ve SAHOL hisselerini ekledim. Ford Otosan’\u0131 elektrik ara\u00e7 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Romanya fabrikas\u0131ndan gelecek katk\u0131 nedeniyle be\u011feniyorum. Parsan’\u0131n ise sahip oldu\u011fu varl\u0131klar ve gelecekte \u00fcretece\u011fi karl\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle ucuz fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Sabanc\u0131 Holding ise ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay yenilenebilir enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131m a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. An itibariyle 2.6 fk’da ve gelecek potansiyelinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. G\u00fcncel portf\u00f6y durumu bu \u015fekildedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Eurobond taraf\u0131nda bu ay yaln\u0131zca bir al\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebildim. Ay ortas\u0131ndan itibaren CDS’ler d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ve an itibariyle 526 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.(Kaynak Eren Kuru twitter<\/a>) Toplam eurobond portf\u00f6y\u00fcm 62 bin usd, y\u0131ll\u0131k kupon gelirim ise 4446 usd civar\u0131nda bulunuyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Bu ay hem hisse portf\u00f6y\u00fc hem de toplam portf\u00f6y ge\u00e7en ay\u0131n da olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme sergileyerek t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini geli\u015ftirdi. G\u00fcncel portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131m %77.8 hisse senedi, %19 eurobond ve %3.2 di\u011fer varl\u0131klardan olu\u015fuyor. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck ve erken emeklilik i\u00e7in planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m ideal portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 %70 hisse senedi, %25 eurobond ve %5 nakit \u015feklindeydi. \u015eu anda ideal portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n durumday\u0131m. Y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn TL baz\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %189, usd baz\u0131nda ise %101 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.\u00a0Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m ise %92\u2019yi ge\u00e7erek yine t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. %100\u2019e ula\u015fana kadar tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131ma devam..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Herkese selamlar. Bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 53 ay olmu\u015f. Yava\u015f yava\u015f be\u015finci y\u0131l\u0131n da sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":528,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Kas\u0131m 2022 sonu portf\u00f6y durumu. Bu ay toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm ge\u00e7en ay\u0131n da olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde performans g\u00f6sterdi. G\u00fcncel finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck oran\u0131m %92 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. %100 olana kadar tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131ma devam..","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[7,8,6,4,34,15],"tags":[22,24,25,26,23],"class_list":["post-516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","category-hisse-senedi","category-portfoy","category-yatirim","tag-borsa","tag-finansal-ozgurluk","tag-fire","tag-hisse-senedi","tag-yatirim","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/pexels-photo-2662116.jpeg?fit=1880%2C1253&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=516"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":529,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516\/revisions\/529"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}