{"id":45,"date":"2020-09-13T10:49:00","date_gmt":"2020-09-13T07:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/13\/finansal-ozgurluk-yolculugunda-yaptigim-hatalar-ve-gelistirdigim-yonlerim\/"},"modified":"2022-06-02T13:40:59","modified_gmt":"2022-06-02T10:40:59","slug":"finansal-ozgurluk-yolculugunda-yaptigim-hatalar-ve-gelistirdigim-yonlerim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2020\/09\/13\/finansal-ozgurluk-yolculugunda-yaptigim-hatalar-ve-gelistirdigim-yonlerim\/","title":{"rendered":"Finansal \u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck Yolculu\u011funda Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m Hatalar ve Geli\u015ftirdi\u011fim Y\u00f6nlerim"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Herkese selamlar;<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130yi k\u00f6t\u00fc 26 ayd\u0131r ciddi manada yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yorum ve bunu da yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 y\u0131ld\u0131r twitterdan ve blog arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla payla\u015f\u0131yorum. Bu yolda \u00e7ok \u015feyler \u00f6\u011frendim, ba\u015flarda kaybettim sonra yava\u015f yava\u015f i\u015fin kurallar\u0131n\u0131 kavramaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a kar etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131m. Bu esnada gerek sosyal medya \u00fczerinden, gerekse blogdan sizin de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinizden de geri bildirim alarak stratejimi bir noktaya getirdim. Bu nokta elbette ki son nokta de\u011fil, \u00f6mr\u00fcm\u00fcz boyunca kendimizi geli\u015ftirmeye ve yenilemeye devam etmek mecburiyetindeyiz. Hayat, yedi\u011fimiz kaz\u0131klar\u0131n bile\u015fkesidir demi\u015fler, biz ise m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca az kaz\u0131k yiyerek finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe ula\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kovalamaya ve bu konuda ara\u015ft\u0131rma yapmaya 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n yaz aylar\u0131nda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. \u0130lk okudu\u011fum kaynaklar lattedenborsaya.com ve mrfreeat33.com idi. Daha sonra kendisiyle \u015fahsen de tan\u0131\u015fma f\u0131rsat\u0131m olan Yi\u011fit beyin \u00fczerimde hakk\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. \u0130lk k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131 buralardan ald\u0131ktan sonra uzun bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00fcrecine giri\u015ftim. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck nedir, nas\u0131l ula\u015fabiliriz, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 farklar nelerdir, vergi sistemi nas\u0131l i\u015fliyor bunlar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131m. Bu a\u015famada hisse senetleri ya da di\u011fer yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131 de\u011fil de finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck fikrinin \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc kavramaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, bu kavram sizi belli bir aral\u0131\u011fa k\u0131s\u0131tlam\u0131yor. Tamamen emlak yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ile de \u00f6zg\u00fcr olabilirsiniz, hisse senedi ve di\u011fer sabit getirili ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullanarak da. \u00d6nemli olan yeterli mal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ula\u015fmak ve bunu her y\u0131l enflasyondan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fctebiliyor olmak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ve \u00f6zellikle ABD’de hisse senetlerinin uzun y\u0131llara dayanan bir ge\u00e7mi\u015fi var. 1800’l\u00fc y\u0131llardan beri temett\u00fc da\u011f\u0131tan ve her y\u0131l bu temett\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131ran \u015firketler mevcut. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ve faiz ortam\u0131nda da bu \u015firketler her y\u0131l temett\u00fclerini enflasyonun \u00fczerinde art\u0131rarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na pasif gelir sa\u011fl\u0131yorlar. Bak\u0131n, enflasyonun \u00fczerinde temett\u00fc veriminden bahsetmiyorum, enflasyonun \u00fczerinde temett\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinden bahsediyorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc esas olan tek seferlik y\u00fcksek temett\u00fc de\u011fil, s\u00fcreklilik arz eden ve her y\u0131l enflasyonun \u00fczerinde artan temett\u00fcd\u00fcr. ABD’de \u00e7o\u011fu temett\u00fc aristokrat\u0131 \u015firket %1-2 aras\u0131nda temett\u00fc verir, fakat temett\u00fclerini her y\u0131l %10-15 oran\u0131nda art\u0131r\u0131rlar. Hisse fiyat\u0131 da temett\u00fc ile birlikte artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u00e7ifte kazanma \u015fans\u0131 verir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hata-1 Temett\u00fcye Fazla \u00d6nem Vermek<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Neyse fazla da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131k, ilk yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m zamanlarda(2018) b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve temett\u00fc hisseleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 tam kavrayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in, T\u00fcrkiye’nin dev sanayi \u015firketlerine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131m. Bunlar genellikle sermayesi 1 milyar tl ve \u00fczerinde olan, b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda tamamlam\u0131\u015f, minimal yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapan ve \u00f6zkaynaklar\u0131 yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u015firketler. E ben de 30’lu ya\u015flar\u0131m\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nday\u0131m, her y\u0131l y\u00fcksek temett\u00fcye ihtiyac\u0131m yok ki:) Stratejimdeki birinci hata, y\u00fcksek temett\u00fcye fazla \u00f6nem verip, b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u015firketlerini ka\u00e7\u0131rmak oldu. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 %21 kay\u0131pla kapatmam\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sebebi sekt\u00f6rleri d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel olan ve d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna yakla\u015fmakta oldu\u011fumuz bir zamanda dev sanayi \u015firketlerinin portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fazla tutmak oldu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sadece temett\u00fc \u015firketi almad\u0131m tabiki, o d\u00f6nemde almaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m ve \u015fu anda portf\u00f6y\u00fcmde b\u00fcy\u00fck yer tutan bir tar\u0131m \u015firketi de tipik bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme hissesiydi fakat o d\u00f6nemde bunu alm\u0131\u015f olmak ancak \u015fansla a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc o zamanlar \u00f6zkaynak karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, ROIC gibi \u015feylerden habersizdim \ud83d\ude42 Yava\u015f yava\u015f finans konusunda bilgilerim artt\u0131k\u00e7a ve hisse de\u011ferlemeyi \u00f6\u011frendik\u00e7e, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m hatalar da g\u00f6z\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hata-2 Yanl\u0131\u015f Portf\u00f6y Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve \u00c7e\u015fitleme Yapmamak<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Madem 2018’den ba\u015flad\u0131k, devam edelim. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortalar\u0131na geldi\u011fimizde elimde g\u00fczel bir miktarda vadesiz d\u00f6viz bulunuyordu. Hat\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z 2018 A\u011fustos kur krizinden 2 ay \u00f6nce d\u00f6vizin hepsini ve bir miktar alt\u0131n bozdurarak yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 bir ev ald\u0131m. Bu, asl\u0131nda yukar\u0131da yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131mdan da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hata ama neyse \ud83d\ude42 Bu hareketle, hem kur y\u00fckseli\u015fini ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oldum hem de portf\u00f6y \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmesini s\u0131f\u0131ra indirdim. Elimde 1 adet yat\u0131r\u0131ml\u0131k ev ve kredi borcundan ba\u015fka bir \u015fey kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131, ne ak\u0131l ama de\u011fil mi \ud83d\ude42 Neyse en az\u0131ndan tasarruf oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7ok fazla etkilemeyecek bir miktar idi ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir krediydi.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz aylarda kredinin bitimine yak\u0131n bu evi de satarak planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m portf\u00f6y da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldum. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck fikrini ke\u015ffetmemin bu evi ald\u0131ktan 1 ay sonraya denk gelmesi de ayr\u0131 bir ironi san\u0131r\u0131m.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hata-3 Elde Nakit Tutamamak<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Bu hatay\u0131 hala k\u0131smen de olsa yap\u0131yorum. T\u00fcrkiye’de 2 y\u0131ldan uzun ralliler ve 2 y\u0131ldan uzun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler asla olmuyor. Sal\u0131n\u0131m genli\u011fi ve frekans\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir piyasada i\u015flem yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle ayl\u0131k d\u00fczenli al\u0131mlar her zaman i\u015fe yaramayabiliyor. Uzun bir rallinin tam sonunda al\u0131m yapmak ile uzun bir ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131n\u0131n dibinde al\u0131m yapmak aras\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck fark olu\u015fuyor. Bunun birden fazla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc var ve hi\u00e7biri kesin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil.<\/span>\u00a0Ayl\u0131k al\u0131mlara devam ederken bir k\u0131s\u0131m paran\u0131z\u0131 yedek ak\u00e7e olarak kenara koyarak \u00f6nceden belirledi\u011finiz oranlardan al\u0131mlar yapabilirsiniz. Ya da hisse senetleri ile ters korelasyonda olan bir enstr\u00fcman bulup, birinin y\u00fckselip di\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc zamanlarda dengeleme yapabilirsiniz. \u015eu an i\u00e7in ben birinci y\u00f6ntemi uygulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum. Piyasa zamanlamas\u0131 uzun vadede zor olsa da k\u0131sa ve orta vadede borsan\u0131n veya takip etti\u011fim hisselerin %3 ve daha fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00fcnlerde al\u0131m yaparak riski azaltmaya ve getiriyi art\u0131rmaya gayret ediyorum.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu hata, eurobondlar\u0131 da ilgilendiriyor. Eurobondlar bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere CDS ve ABD tahvillerinden etkileniyorlar. Bu y\u00fczden bu iki parametre hakk\u0131nda az da olsa bilgi sahibi olman\u0131z ve makroekonomik geli\u015fmeleri takip etmeniz gerekiyor. Eurobondlarda hisseler gibi her ay al\u0131m yapamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m i\u00e7in CDS’in ve ABD tahvillerinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu zamanlar\u0131 yakalamaya cal\u0131\u015f\u0131yorum. Bu da her zaman m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmuyor. D\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131 da s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, vadesiz d\u00f6viz tutmak bende param\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m hissiyat\u0131 uyand\u0131r\u0131yor \ud83d\ude42 F\u0131rsat maliyeti ile al\u0131m i\u00e7in bekleme aras\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ikilemde kal\u0131yorum.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u015eu andaki statejimi toparlarsam;<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru geli\u015ftirdi\u011fim ve uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m stratejiyi devam ettirece\u011fim. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck plan\u0131m<\/span><\/a>\u00a0adl\u0131 yaz\u0131mda anlattt\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fczere portf\u00f6yde %60-65 oran\u0131nda hisse senedi, %30-35 oran\u0131nda eurobond bulundurmaya ve bu oran\u0131 sabit tutmaya gayret edece\u011fim. \u015eu anda eurobond k\u0131sm\u0131 dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine paralel olarak hisse senetlerinden daha az ekleme yapmama ra\u011fmen tl baz\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek getiri elde etti. Tabiki bu hep b\u00f6yle olmayacak. Hi\u00e7bir yat\u0131r\u0131m enstr\u00fcman\u0131 sonsuza kadar ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde kazand\u0131rmaya devam edemez. Bu nedenle ucuz oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm hisselerde al\u0131mlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriyorum.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hisse senedi demi\u015fken, art\u0131k hisse se\u00e7iminde daha bilin\u00e7liyim ve daha az hata yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. H\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta sermayeli(small-cap, mid-cap) \u015firketlerden \u00f6zsermaye karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131(ROE) ve yat\u0131r\u0131lan sermaye karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131(ROIC) y\u00fcksek olanlar\u0131 tercih ediyorum. Bu \u015firketleri de direkt alm\u0131yorum elbette, \u015furada<\/span><\/a> yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m kriterlere g\u00f6re eleme ve de\u011ferleme yap\u0131yorum. \u00d6zellikle \u015firket y\u00f6netiminin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi bu tarz k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u015firketlerde daha \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tabiki sadece smallcap \u015firket alm\u0131yorum. Portf\u00f6yde defansif unsur olarak g\u00f6rev yapan veya kar\u015f\u0131t yat\u0131r\u0131m olarak tuttu\u011fum \u015firketler de var. Defansif \u015firketler, betas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerden az etkilenen; kar\u015f\u0131t yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in ald\u0131klar\u0131m da \u015fu anda k\u00f6t\u00fc durumda olan fakat ekonomide \u00e7arklar tekrar d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda prim yapmaya m\u00fcsait olan \u015firketler. Bu anlamda, \u015fu anda 14-15 \u015firketlik bir portf\u00f6y ile\u00a0 sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda yeterli \u00e7e\u015fitlemeyi yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131m kanaatindeyim.<\/span><\/p>\n

Eurobond taraf\u0131nda CDS y\u00fcksek olduk\u00e7a al\u0131c\u0131 olmaya devam edece\u011fim. ABD tahvilleri s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n durumda ve birka\u00e7 y\u0131l daha b\u00f6yle kalacakm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. FED ne zaman faiz art\u0131rmaya karar verir, o zaman stratejiyi bir daha g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7iririz. D\u00fczenli 2 ayda bir eurobond al\u0131m\u0131na devam edersem 4-5 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde eurobond hedefime de ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ondan sonras\u0131 da hisse senetleri ile eurobondlar aras\u0131nda dengeyi sa\u011flamakla ge\u00e7ecek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yakla\u015f\u0131k %35’ini tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011fumda bana destek olan ve de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri ile katk\u0131 sa\u011flayan herkese \u00e7ok te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim. Hedefe ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nce inanmak, sonra da bu inanc\u0131 ne olursa olsun, hangi zorlukla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsak kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fal\u0131m devam ettirebilmek gerekiyor. Hala harekete ge\u00e7memi\u015f, bir k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m bekleyen ne kadar finansal k\u00f6le varsa size sesleniyorum. Hen\u00fcz ge\u00e7 de\u011fil! Yat\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flamak i\u00e7in en iyi zaman d\u00fcnd\u00fc, ikinci en iyi zaman ise bug\u00fcn…<\/span><\/p>\n

Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bay Tutumlu<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Herkese selamlar; \u0130yi k\u00f6t\u00fc 26 ayd\u0131r ciddi manada yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yorum ve bunu da yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 y\u0131ld\u0131r twitterdan ve blog arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla payla\u015f\u0131yorum. Bu yolda \u00e7ok \u015feyler…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":398,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[5,3,7,8,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa","category-erken-emeklilik","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/pexels-photo-7021149.jpeg?fit=1040%2C1300&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":399,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45\/revisions\/399"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/398"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}