{"id":38,"date":"2020-11-22T10:12:00","date_gmt":"2020-11-22T07:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/22\/4-kurali-turkiyeye-nasil-uygulayabiliriz\/"},"modified":"2023-01-25T22:41:19","modified_gmt":"2023-01-25T19:41:19","slug":"4-kurali-turkiyeye-nasil-uygulayabiliriz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/22\/4-kurali-turkiyeye-nasil-uygulayabiliriz\/","title":{"rendered":"%4 Kural\u0131-T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye Nas\u0131l Uygulayabiliriz?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck hedefi olan bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi %4 kural\u0131ndan haberdard\u0131r. Bu oran, 1998 y\u0131l\u0131nda Trinity \u00dcniversitesinde yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya dayan\u0131yor. William Bengen \u00f6nderli\u011findeki ekip 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir zaman diliminde belirli oranda hisse senedi ve tahvilden olu\u015fan portf\u00f6ylere sahip yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n her y\u0131l portf\u00f6ylerinden ne kadar\u0131n\u0131 &#8216;g\u00fcvenli&#8217; bir \u015fekilde \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi esas\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Bu, finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra para kazanmak maksad\u0131yla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak istemeyenler i\u00e7in her y\u0131l portf\u00f6ylerinden bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 &#8216;bozdurarak&#8217; hayatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye yetecek kadar mal ve hizmetleri buradan sa\u011flamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">Trinity \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ilk duyuruldu\u011fundan beri FIRE \u00e7evrelerinde genel ge\u00e7er bir kural olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131r oldu. Y\u0131llar i\u00e7erisinde de\u011fi\u015fen enflasyon oranlar\u0131na ve borsa getirilerine g\u00f6re g\u00fcncellenen bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n son haline <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thepoorswiss.com\/updated-trinity-study\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u015furadan<\/a><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\"> ula\u015fabilirsiniz. K\u0131saca anlatmak gerekirse;<\/span><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">Emeklilik zaman\u0131n\u0131z geldi\u011finde g\u00fcvenli para \u00e7ekme oran\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 %4 olarak ayarlay\u0131n. Yani 1 milyon TLniz varsa her y\u0131l portf\u00f6yden &#8216;g\u00fcvenli&#8217; olarak 40 bin TL \u00e7ekebilirsiniz.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">Her y\u0131l para \u00e7ekme oran\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 enflasyon kadar art\u0131r\u0131n. Yani enflasyon %5 ise ikinci y\u0131l g\u00fcvenli \u00e7ekim miktar\u0131n\u0131z 42 bin TL olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">Bu i\u015flemi 30 y\u0131l boyunca tekrarlayabilirsiniz. 30 y\u0131ldan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma herhangi bir garanti vermemekte.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">%4 kural\u0131 en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo i\u00e7in geli\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. Yani binlerce kez binlerce farkl\u0131 parametre ile yap\u0131lan sim\u00fclasyonlarda en k\u00f6t\u00fc ihtimalle %4 oran\u0131nda para \u00e7ekebilece\u011finizi g\u00f6steriyor. Bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin 30 y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7tan \u00e7ok daha fazla miktarda paras\u0131 olmakta.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">\u00a0Bengen bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi ve yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son makalesinde de ABD piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon ve y\u00fcksek borsa getirilerinden dolay\u0131 %5 g\u00fcvenli \u00e7ekim oran\u0131n\u0131n da yeterli olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Peki ba\u015fka \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in durum ne? Bildi\u011finiz gibi ABD piyasalar\u0131 d\u00fcnyadaki en eski ve k\u00f6kl\u00fc piyasa olarak dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Bu y\u00fczden \u00e7ok eski verilere ula\u015fabiliyoruz ve daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar yapabiliyoruz. Yine de di\u011fer piyasalar i\u00e7in baz\u0131 parametreler kullanarak hesaplama yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bunlardan ilki enflasyon oran\u0131 ikincisi ise Shiller P\/E ratio ya da CAPE ratio olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan ve bir borsan\u0131n genel olarak ne kadar pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steren bir parametre. Bengen bu iki parametreyi kullanarak de\u011fi\u015fik enflasyon(hatta deflasyon) ve CAPE oranlar\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli para \u00e7ekme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 anlatan tablolar yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Bunlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da payla\u015f\u0131yorum.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\" href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TDUfU24nUFg\/X7oJugDQOUI\/AAAAAAAAA0w\/Yso31l-EloI0ZZqQ-Bld9rNpneH4eSl-gCNcBGAsYHQ\/s700\/safemax-inflation.jpg?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-TDUfU24nUFg\/X7oJugDQOUI\/AAAAAAAAA0w\/Yso31l-EloI0ZZqQ-Bld9rNpneH4eSl-gCNcBGAsYHQ\/w640-h414\/safemax-inflation.jpg?resize=640%2C414&#038;ssl=1\" width=\"640\" height=\"414\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"453\" data-original-width=\"700\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">\u00dclkemiz i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek enflasyon(%5 \u00fcst\u00fc) ve CAPE ratio olarak bulabildi\u011fim en g\u00fcncel veri olan \u015furadaki verileri kulland\u0131m.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"clear: both; text-align: center;\"><a style=\"margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;\" href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-NqjznD5B0N4\/X7oKzQDwwtI\/AAAAAAAAA08\/TACVfSajhPAEsmrhRIYHggjWm79gIghIQCNcBGAsYHQ\/s1916\/Screenshot%2B2020-11-22%2Bat%2B09.51.40.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-NqjznD5B0N4\/X7oKzQDwwtI\/AAAAAAAAA08\/TACVfSajhPAEsmrhRIYHggjWm79gIghIQCNcBGAsYHQ\/w640-h278\/Screenshot%2B2020-11-22%2Bat%2B09.51.40.png?resize=640%2C278&#038;ssl=1\" width=\"640\" height=\"278\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"830\" data-original-width=\"1916\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere T\u00fcrkiye hesaplanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnden beri CAPE ratio a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tarihinin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00f6nemini ya\u015f\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6nemde emekli olmak, ilerde ortalamaya(15 civar\u0131) yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek sizi olduk\u00e7a g\u00fcvenli bir duruma sokacakt\u0131r. Burada beni \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan durum \u015fu oldu. T\u00fcrkiye 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda 28 civar\u0131 bir CAPE oran\u0131 ile ABD&#8217;nin bile \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. Bunu da ilgin\u00e7 bir anektod olarak buraya koyal\u0131m:)<\/span><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">Tabloda y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck CAPE oran\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc al\u0131rsak \u00fclkemiz i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nca bir de\u011fer olan %10 g\u00fcvenli para \u00e7ekme oran\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bu, \u015fu anda emekli olacak kadar paras\u0131 olanlar i\u00e7in adeta bir cennet vaadediyor. \u0130lerde CAPE oran\u0131n\u0131n ortalama 12-14 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayarak hesaplama yaparsak ise %6.5 oran\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131yoruz. Bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k harcamalar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n sadece 15 kat\u0131 bir portf\u00f6ye sahip olsan\u0131z bile 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k periyotta sorun ya\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyor. Daha uzun periyorlar i\u00e7in biraz daha g\u00fcvenli olan %6 veya %5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Tabi bu hesaplamalar emekli olduktan sonra hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde para kazanmama durumuna g\u00f6re olan rakamlar. E\u011fer sevdi\u011finiz i\u015fte \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p az da olsa para kazanma durumunuz olursa finansal ya\u015fant\u0131n\u0131z \u00e7ok daha rahat olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">Sizin durumunuz nas\u0131l? Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k birikiminiz var?<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: verdana;\">Bay Tutumlu<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck hedefi olan bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi %4 kural\u0131ndan haberdard\u0131r. Bu oran, 1998 y\u0131l\u0131nda Trinity \u00dcniversitesinde yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya dayan\u0131yor. William Bengen \u00f6nderli\u011findeki ekip 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[13,11,3,8,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-barista-fire","category-coast-fire","category-erken-emeklilik","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/pexels-andreea-stavarache-5359505.jpeg?fit=400%2C300&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":294,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38\/revisions\/294"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}