{"id":3697,"date":"2026-09-02T09:10:57","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T06:10:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=3697"},"modified":"2026-09-02T09:35:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T06:35:34","slug":"agustos-2026-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/02\/agustos-2026-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"A\u011fustos 2026 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Herkese selamlar. Yeni bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funa ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 98 ay, hedefime ula\u015fal\u0131 ise 35 ay ge\u00e7mi\u015f. Ge\u00e7en ay temmuzu bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ay\u0131 diye tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. A\u011fustos ise bir telafi ay\u0131 oldu, ama son haftas\u0131nda frene bas\u0131ld\u0131. Temmuz sonunda 13.458 seviyesinden devrald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z BIST 100, 3 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta 13.376 ile ay dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra kesintisiz y\u00fckseldi, 26 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta 14.730 ile ay zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve orada durdu. Ay\u0131n son i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc olan 31 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta y\u00fczde 2,10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 14.334 seviyesinden kapatt\u0131. Yani endeks ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6,5 de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ama ay zirvesinin y\u00fczde 2,7 alt\u0131nda kapand\u0131. Ay\u0131n hikayesi de tam olarak burada. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel likidite ilk \u00fc\u00e7 haftay\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, son g\u00fcn ise fon d\u00fczenlemesi tabloyu de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Onu da yaz\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen k\u0131sm\u0131nda a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global geli\u015fmelere ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce ki\u015fisel taraftan biraz bahsedeyim. Okullar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na 1 haftadan az zaman kala yaz rutinimin art\u0131k yava\u015f yava\u015f sonuna geliyorum. G\u00fcnd\u00fcz hala s\u0131cak fakat sabahlar\u0131 art\u0131k serin bir havaya uyan\u0131yoruz. Havuz sezonu biraz daha devam eder muhtemelen. Yeni spor salonumdan memnunum, evime sadece 4 dk ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde rahat\u00e7a gidip gelebiliyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130\u00e7erik taraf\u0131nda \u00fcretime devam ettim. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck kul\u00fcb\u00fcnde 2 b\u00f6l\u00fcm yay\u0131nlad\u0131k. Birisi Ray Dalio&#8217;nun her havaya uygun portf\u00f6y stratejisi, di\u011feri ise finansal ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k sonras\u0131 ya\u015fam ve anlam aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fczerineydi. Genellikle bir finans b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bir tane ise lifestyle b\u00f6l\u00fcm \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. B\u00f6l\u00fcm linklerine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan ula\u015fabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify wp-embed-aspect-21-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: Her Ko\u015fulda Kazand\u0131ran Portf\u00f6y Olur Mu? | F\u00d6K #50\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/2KoXb7b6dajZGTd0LYVlII?si=ImzHZ2BzRFedrs7RjqzLBw&amp;utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify wp-embed-aspect-21-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: Finansal Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Sonras\u0131 Anlam ve Ya\u015fam Rehberi | F\u00d6K #51\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/09gv7MN0mqSz7YkGVZz8hN?si=0TlDylnuQK6DBDiNPyjn7Q&amp;utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca finansal ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k yolcular\u0131n\u0131n hayatlar\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m seride yeni bir makale yay\u0131nland\u0131. Malezyal\u0131 Temett\u00fc Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Leigh&#8217;in Hikayesine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki linkten ula\u015fabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"tr\" dir=\"ltr\">Yolun Ortas\u0131ndaki FIRE Yolcusu &#8211; Malezyal\u0131 Temett\u00fc Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Leigh&#39;in Hikayesi <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LaigVPvhEA\">https:\/\/t.co\/LaigVPvhEA<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Midas Ara\u015ft\u0131rma (@midasarastirma) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/midasarastirma\/status\/2092167693302386852?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 25, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Patreon taraf\u0131ndaki i\u00e7eriklere de d\u00fczenli olarak devam ediyorum. Haftal\u0131k b\u00fcltenler ve bilan\u00e7o analizleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bu ay PC \u0130leti\u015fim Yat\u0131r\u0131m tezinin 2. b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ektim ve Borusan \u015firketini yine 2 b\u00f6l\u00fcmde incelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Yat\u0131r\u0131m tezlerine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki linkten ula\u015fabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/collection\/1561592?view=expanded\">https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/collection\/1561592?view=expanded<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jeopolitik Geli\u015fmeler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eimdi g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmelere d\u00f6nelim. Temmuz, haziranda fiyatlanan bar\u0131\u015f temett\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geri al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, m\u00fczakerelerin t\u0131kand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn 73 dolardan 88 dolara d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ay olmu\u015ftu. A\u011fustos ise iki yar\u0131ya b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc. Ay\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda gerilim bir miktar so\u011fudu, arz endi\u015feleri geriledi ve Brent 4 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta 77,7 dolara kadar indi. Yani temmuzdaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin tamam\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde geri verildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"353\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123229.png?resize=1024%2C353&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3700\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123229.png?resize=1024%2C353&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123229.png?resize=300%2C103&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123229.png?resize=768%2C265&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123229.png?w=1434&amp;ssl=1 1434w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Ay\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda tablo yeniden d\u00f6nd\u00fc. B\u00f6lgedeki tansiyonun tekrar artmas\u0131 ve ABD Hazinesi&#8217;nin \u0130ran&#8217;a y\u00f6nelik yeni yapt\u0131r\u0131m paketini duyurmas\u0131 petroldeki risk primini geri getirdi. Brent ay i\u00e7inde 93,2 dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ay\u0131 90,4 dolardan kapatt\u0131. Ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,7 gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ama ay i\u00e7indeki 77,7 ile 93,2 aras\u0131ndaki 15 dolarl\u0131k sal\u0131n\u0131m tablonun ger\u00e7ek halini g\u00f6steriyor. Petrolde art\u0131k kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00f6n de\u011fil, jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klara ba\u011fl\u0131 bir sal\u0131n\u0131m rejimi var. Enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in bu, dezenflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ay biterken Ortado\u011fu&#8217;daki gerilimin yeniden artmas\u0131, eyl\u00fcle de bu belirsizlikle girdi\u011fimiz anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Yurti\u00e7i Piyasalar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye d\u00f6necek olursak, a\u011fustos Borsa \u0130stanbul i\u00e7in uzun s\u00fcredir g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ay oldu, ama son g\u00fcn ciddi bir darbe ald\u0131. Endeks 3 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta 13.376 ile dibi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseldi, 26 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta 14.730 ile ay zirvesini yapt\u0131 ve 31 A\u011fustos&#8217;taki y\u00fczde 2,10&#8217;luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ay\u0131 14.334&#8217;ten kapatt\u0131. O g\u00fcn bankac\u0131l\u0131k endeksi y\u00fczde 2,38, holdingler y\u00fczde 1,43 geriledi ve i\u015flem hacmi 253,8 milyar TL oldu. Ayl\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f TL baz\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6,5 y\u00fckseli\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Dolar kurunun 47,53&#8217;ten 48,26&#8217;ya, yani liran\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,5 de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle dolar baz\u0131nda getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,9 oluyor. BIST 30 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 8 ile endeksin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131, yani y\u00fckseli\u015fi bu ay b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli \u015firketler s\u0131rtlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Y\u00fckseli\u015fin arkas\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ayr\u0131 r\u00fczgar vard\u0131. Birincisi ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o sezonunun beklentilerin \u00fczerinde ge\u00e7mesi. \u00d6zellikle rafineri, gayrimenkul ve sigorta taraf\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rakamlar geldi. \u0130kincisi T\u00fcrkiye risk priminin gerilemesi. 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS a\u011fustosta yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 206 baz puan seviyesine indi, bu haziranda konu\u015ftu\u011fumuz 225 seviyesinin de alt\u0131nda. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ise k\u00fcresel tarafta risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve geli\u015fen piyasalara para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"657\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123340.png?resize=1024%2C657&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3702\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123340.png?resize=1024%2C657&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123340.png?resize=300%2C192&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123340.png?resize=768%2C492&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123340.png?w=1438&amp;ssl=1 1438w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Son haftada bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc r\u00fczgar tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh&#8217;\u0131n 28 A\u011fustos&#8217;taki Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131 beklenenden \u015fahin geldi ve eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini yeniden masaya koydu. Bunun geli\u015fen piyasalara yans\u0131mas\u0131 gecikmedi, Borsa \u0130stanbul da pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015feni ay\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fcnde ald\u0131. Serbest fonlara gelen d\u00fczenleme de tabiki son g\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte etkili oldu. Buradan \u00e7\u0131karmam gereken ders \u015fu, bir ay\u0131n getirisi ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olursa olsun, tek bir konu\u015fma o getirinin \u00fc\u00e7te birini birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde geri alabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"693\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123452.png?resize=1024%2C693&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3704\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123452.png?resize=1024%2C693&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123452.png?resize=300%2C203&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123452.png?resize=768%2C520&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-123452.png?w=1289&amp;ssl=1 1289w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Her zamanki notumu yine d\u00fc\u015feyim. Ki\u015filer kendilerini endeksle de\u011fil d\u00f6viz veya enflasyon gibi bir enstr\u00fcmanla k\u0131yaslamal\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc endeksin i\u00e7eri\u011fi sabit de\u011fil ve birka\u00e7 hisse baz\u0131 aylar tabloyu tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u015fekillendiriyor. Bu ay bunun iyi bir \u00f6rne\u011fini ya\u015fad\u0131k, endeks y\u00fczde 6,5 y\u00fckselirken portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki iki \u015firket y\u00fczde 30&#8217;un \u00fczerinde kazand\u0131rd\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 tanesi ise yatay ya da eksi kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>TCMB taraf\u0131nda a\u011fustosta PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 yoktu, takvimde bu ay i\u00e7in toplant\u0131 bulunmuyor. Politika faizi y\u00fczde 37 seviyesinde duruyor ve bir sonraki karar 10 Eyl\u00fcl&#8217;de gelecek. Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketine g\u00f6re hem reel sekt\u00f6r hem finans kesimi eyl\u00fclde faizin sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Benim ilk indirim beklentim sonbahardayd\u0131 ama Fed taraf\u0131ndaki \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f bu beklentiyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel faiz y\u00f6n\u00fc yukar\u0131y\u0131 i\u015faret ederken TCMB&#8217;nin indirime ba\u015flamas\u0131 hem kur hem sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zor bir tercih olur. Bekleyip g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ki\u015fisel Portf\u00f6y<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda portf\u00f6y\u00fcmde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir hareket yapmad\u0131m. CVK Madencilikte bedelli sermaye art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kat\u0131larak pay say\u0131m\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131m. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda d\u00fczenli BTC al\u0131m\u0131na devam ettim. Eurobond kuponlar\u0131n\u0131 da BTC yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir ayda 80 bin $&#8217;lara y\u00fckselen BTC iyi bir getiri sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eimdi portf\u00f6ydeki \u015firketlerle ilgili a\u011fustos ay\u0131 geli\u015fmelerine bakal\u0131m. T\u00fcm \u015firketleri yazmayaca\u011f\u0131m, sadece \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme olanlar\u0131 payla\u015fmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu ay a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"841\" height=\"514\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085708.png?resize=841%2C514&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3705\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085708.png?w=841&amp;ssl=1 841w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085708.png?resize=300%2C183&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085708.png?resize=768%2C469&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 841px) 100vw, 841px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TUPRS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcpra\u015f \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ay\u0131nda da portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc halkas\u0131 oldu. Hisse a\u011fustosta yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 36 de\u011fer kazand\u0131, 295,25 seviyesinden 400,25&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ay i\u00e7inde 407,50 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Nisandan beri yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u015fey nihayet rakamlara d\u00f6k\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7osu bekledi\u011fimin de \u00fczerinde geldi. \u00c7eyreklik sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 60 art\u0131\u015fla 386,4 milyar TL&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. FAV\u00d6K 18,3 milyar TL&#8217;den 54,3 milyar TL&#8217;ye, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 kat\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Ana ortakl\u0131k pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen net kar ise 11,7 milyar TL&#8217;den 45,9 milyar TL&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizinin, bo\u011faz\u0131n kapal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin ve petrol\u00fcn 110 dolardan 73 dolara inip tekrar yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00fct\u00fcn o yolculu\u011fun etkisi tam olarak bu \u00e7eyre\u011fe denk geldi ve rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir yere ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"412\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124400.png?resize=1024%2C412&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3706\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124400.png?resize=1024%2C412&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124400.png?resize=300%2C121&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124400.png?resize=768%2C309&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124400.png?w=1437&amp;ssl=1 1437w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As\u0131l \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn gelen beklenti g\u00fcncellemesiydi. \u015eirket 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 net rafineri marj\u0131 beklentisini 6 ila 7 dolar band\u0131ndan 13 ila 15 dolar band\u0131na revize etti. Yani y\u00f6netim y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki hedefini iki kat\u0131ndan fazla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Kapasite kullan\u0131m y\u00fczde 95 ila 100, \u00fcretim yakla\u015f\u0131k 29 milyon ton, toplam sat\u0131\u015f hacmi yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyon ton ve toplam yat\u0131r\u0131m yakla\u015f\u0131k 700 milyon dolar hedeflerinde ise de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmad\u0131. Aylard\u0131r bu \u015firketin muhafazakar hedeflerinin ge\u00e7ilebilir oldu\u011funu yaz\u0131yordum, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme beklentimin de \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>RYGYO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reysa\u015f GYO bu ay T\u00fcpra\u015f&#8217;a neredeyse yeti\u015fti, hisse a\u011fustosta yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 33 de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve 38,30&#8217;dan 50,80&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u00fckseli\u015fin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ay\u0131n son be\u015f i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde geldi, hisse 24 A\u011fustos&#8217;taki 43,60 seviyesinden 31 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta 50,80&#8217;e ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131 ve ay\u0131n zirvesinde kapand\u0131. Endeksin y\u00fczde 2,10 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc son i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde bile yukar\u0131 gitti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mohnish Pabrai&#8217;nin hisse al\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 30 a\u011fustos 2026 itibariyle Wagons fonundaki Reysa\u015f GYO pay\u0131 %13.7&#8217;ye y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda ve fonun en b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyonu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"649\" height=\"479\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-110853.png?resize=649%2C479&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3707\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-110853.png?w=649&amp;ssl=1 649w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-110853.png?resize=300%2C221&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 649px) 100vw, 649px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131m temposu ise s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 17 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta \u015firket \u0130zmir Menderes G\u00f6rece&#8217;de toplam 23.680 metrekarelik iki parseli 278,24 milyon TL bedelle, tamam\u0131 \u00f6zkaynaktan kar\u015f\u0131lanmak \u00fczere pe\u015fin sat\u0131n ald\u0131. De\u011ferleme raporundaki tutar 378,24 milyon TL oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in al\u0131m de\u011ferlemenin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 26 alt\u0131nda yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Bu arsa \u00fczerine ticari depo park\u0131 projesi geli\u015ftirilmesi planlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CVKMD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda bedelli s\u00fcreci tamamland\u0131. R\u00fc\u00e7han hakk\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131 5 ile 19 A\u011fustos aras\u0131nda yap\u0131ld\u0131, kullan\u0131lmayan 5,96 milyon TL nominal de\u011ferli pay 21 ile 24 A\u011fustos aras\u0131nda Borsa \u0130stanbul birincil piyasada sat\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131 ve 24 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta tamam\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamland\u0131. B\u00f6ylece sermaye 1,4 milyar TL&#8217;den 3,78 milyar TL&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f oldu. Trafigura&#8217;dan gelen 70 milyon dolar ve bedelliden gelen kaynakla birlikte \u015firketin art\u0131k kaynak sorunu kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Yenipazar ve TV Tower projelerinde yeni kap haberleri g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124742.png?resize=1024%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3708\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124742.png?resize=1024%2C407&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124742.png?resize=300%2C119&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124742.png?resize=768%2C305&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-124742.png?w=1438&amp;ssl=1 1438w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir de arka planda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir r\u00fczgar var. Ons alt\u0131n a\u011fustosta yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 y\u00fckselerek 4.044 dolardan 4.449 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ay i\u00e7inde 4.696 dolar seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bir alt\u0131n ve polimetalik maden \u00fcreticisi i\u00e7in bu do\u011frudan marj demek. Haziranda alt\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bu \u015firketi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn en zay\u0131f halkas\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, \u015fimdi tam tersi bir zemin var. Bundan sonra bakaca\u011f\u0131m \u015fey bu sermayenin \u00fcretim ve nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TRCAS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turcas bu ay sessizce iyi bir performans g\u00f6sterdi, hisse yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 11 de\u011fer kazand\u0131 ve 42,50&#8217;den 47,16&#8217;ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ay i\u00e7inde 48,60 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Y\u00fckseli\u015fin arkas\u0131ndaki sebep bence T\u00fcpra\u015f \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde rafineri ve akaryak\u0131t zincirinin tamam\u0131n\u0131n yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek taraf\u0131nda ise tablo zay\u0131f. Net kar 522 milyon TL&#8217;den 103 milyon TL&#8217;ye, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 80 geriledi. Burada ilk \u00e7eyrek kar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek geldi\u011fini de unutmamak laz\u0131m, yani bir baz etkisi var. Turcas bir holding oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de\u011feri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Shell &amp; Turcas ve RWE &amp; Turcas gibi \u00f6zkaynak y\u00f6ntemiyle de\u011ferlenen i\u015ftiraklerden geliyor ve \u00e7eyreklik kar bu i\u015ftiraklerin katk\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re sert bi\u00e7imde dalgalanabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>GLYHO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global Yat\u0131r\u0131m Holding ay ortas\u0131nda iyi bir toparlanma yakalad\u0131 ama kazanc\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu son haftada geri verdi. Hisse a\u011fustosu yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2 art\u0131da, 16,28&#8217;den 16,55&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131karak kapatt\u0131. Ay i\u00e7inde 17,68 seviyesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>19 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta a\u00e7\u0131klanan temmuz yolcu istatistikleri iyi geldi. Konsolide gemi say\u0131s\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2, konsolide yolcu hareketleri ise y\u00fczde 6 artt\u0131. Konsolide olmayan limanlar dahil temmuzda toplam 637 gemi ve 2.152.874 yolcu a\u011f\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f. Haziran doluluk oran\u0131 ise konsolide bazda y\u00fczde 110 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Yani yolcu say\u0131s\u0131 ilk kez 2 milyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Gemi say\u0131s\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yolcu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, gemi ba\u015f\u0131na yolcu say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu benim i\u00e7in gemi say\u0131s\u0131ndan daha de\u011ferli bir g\u00f6sterge, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc liman geliri do\u011frudan yolcu say\u0131s\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"715\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125045.png?resize=715%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3709\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125045.png?w=715&amp;ssl=1 715w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125045.png?resize=300%2C171&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 715px) 100vw, 715px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>6 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta ise temmuzda duyurulan Lizbon i\u015fleminin tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendik. Royal Caribbean&#8217;\u0131n Lisbon Cruise Port sermayesindeki y\u00fczde 20&#8217;lik pay\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 devral\u0131nd\u0131 ve \u015firketin buradaki dolayl\u0131 pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 50&#8217;den y\u00fczde 60&#8217;a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece Lizbon Liman\u0131 \u00f6zkaynak y\u00f6ntemi yerine tam konsolidasyona ge\u00e7iyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eirket ayr\u0131ca a\u011fustos boyunca geri al\u0131m program\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse her g\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve y\u00f6netim kurulu ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mehmet Kutman&#8217;\u0131n ki\u015fisel al\u0131mlar\u0131 da devam etti. Operasyonda bir bozulma g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorum, takip listemin ba\u015f\u0131nda tutmaya devam ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TRGYO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Torunlar GYO a\u011fustosta yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3 de\u011fer kazand\u0131, 93,75&#8217;ten 96,50&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ay i\u00e7inde 98,65 zirvesini ve 89,10 dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yani endeksin belirgin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"412\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125201.png?resize=1024%2C412&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3710\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125201.png?resize=1024%2C412&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125201.png?resize=300%2C121&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125201.png?resize=768%2C309&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125201.png?w=1442&amp;ssl=1 1442w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek rakamlar\u0131 operasyonel tarafta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Sat\u0131\u015f gelirleri y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 86 art\u0131\u015fla 5,17 milyar TL&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, FAV\u00d6K ise 2,09 milyar TL&#8217;den 3,54 milyar TL&#8217;ye, yani y\u00fczde 69 artt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k net kar 4,58 milyar TL&#8217;den 4,24 milyar TL&#8217;ye, yani y\u00fczde 7 geriledi. Aradaki ayr\u0131\u015fma b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki de\u011ferleme kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tekrarlanmamas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Ben operasyonel taraf\u0131n bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini net kardaki gerilemeden daha \u00f6nemli buluyorum, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc tezimin merkezinde kira geliri ve nakit yarat\u0131m\u0131 var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Eurobond Portf\u00f6y\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eurobond portf\u00f6y\u00fcnde a\u011fustosta pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yapmad\u0131m. Toplamda 132.5 $ kupon geliri elde ettim. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS&#8217;i a\u011fustosta yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 15 gerileyerek 206 baz puana indi. Haziranda 225 seviyesini sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye diye yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m, \u015fimdi onun da alt\u0131nday\u0131z. Bilan\u00e7o sezonunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ge\u00e7mesi, enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda gerilemeye devam etmesi ve k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 bu tabloyu birlikte destekledi. Eurobond spreadlerinde de paralel bir daralma g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Fed taraf\u0131ndaki \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn eyl\u00fclde bu tabloyu test edip etmeyece\u011fini izleyece\u011fim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"387\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085723.png?resize=1024%2C387&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3711\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085723.png?resize=1024%2C387&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085723.png?resize=300%2C113&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085723.png?resize=768%2C290&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085723.png?w=1029&amp;ssl=1 1029w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ABD Portf\u00f6y\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu ay\u0131n di\u011fer \u00f6nemli hikayesi yine yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fand\u0131 ve haziranda ba\u015flayan tabloyu tersine \u00e7evirdi. S&amp;P 500 temmuzu 7.489 seviyesinden kapatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, a\u011fustosta 13 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta 7.799 ile kapan\u0131\u015f rekoru k\u0131rd\u0131 ve ay\u0131 7.686&#8217;dan tamamlad\u0131. Ayl\u0131k getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,6. Nasdaq yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,9, Dow Jones ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,3 y\u00fckseldi. Yani haziran ve temmuzda konu\u015ftu\u011fumuz yapay zeka d\u00fczeltmesi a\u011fustosta bir toparlanmaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve bu kez \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc teknoloji yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"629\" height=\"206\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085733.png?resize=629%2C206&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3712\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085733.png?w=629&amp;ssl=1 629w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-085733.png?resize=300%2C98&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>As\u0131l dikkat \u00e7eken hareket ise ay\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 haftas\u0131nda de\u011fer saklama ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda ya\u015fand\u0131. Ons alt\u0131n 4.696 dolara, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 69 dolar civar\u0131na, Bitcoin ise 81 bin dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7 varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ayn\u0131 anda bu kadar sert y\u00fckselmesi tek bir \u015feye i\u015faret ediyordu. Piyasa Fed&#8217;in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamay\u0131 b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve ABD Hazinesi&#8217;nin uzun vadeli tahvil geri al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karma karar\u0131 \u00f6rt\u00fck bir parasal geni\u015fleme gibi okunuyordu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"778\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125421.png?resize=1024%2C778&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3713\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125421.png?resize=1024%2C778&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125421.png?resize=300%2C228&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125421.png?resize=768%2C583&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125421.png?resize=1536%2C1166&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-125421.png?w=1616&amp;ssl=1 1616w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>28 A\u011fustos&#8217;ta bu varsay\u0131m bozuldu. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh, ba\u015fkan olarak ilk Jackson Hole konu\u015fmas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ama enflasyonun hedefin a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Piyasan\u0131n eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na verdi\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131k ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn y\u00fczde 35&#8217;ten y\u00fczde 58&#8217;e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Dolar toparland\u0131, alt\u0131n tek g\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 3 geriledi, Bitcoin ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f de pay\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131. Alt\u0131n ay\u0131 yine de yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 art\u0131yla 4.449 dolardan kapatt\u0131 ama zirvesinin y\u00fczde 5 alt\u0131nda. Bitcoin ise 62,7 bin dolardan 78,9 bin dolara, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 26 y\u00fckselerek ay\u0131 tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu ay b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 SPYG fonum yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,2 ile VOO&#8217;nun yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,7&#8217;lik getirisinin bir miktar \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Yani haziran ve temmuzdaki tablo bu ay tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Buna ra\u011fmen duru\u015fumu de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyorum. De\u011ferlemeler hala y\u00fcksek, Shiller CAPE rasyosu 42 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ve art\u0131k faiz indirimi de\u011fil faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor. Bu ortamda pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fctmek yerine d\u00fczenli ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc al\u0131mla ilerlemeyi tercih ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin taraf\u0131nda ise haziranda 58 bin dolara kadar inen fiyat iki ayda 78,9 bin dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ekim 2025&#8217;teki 126 bin dolarl\u0131k zirveden hala uza\u011f\u0131z ama iki ay \u00f6nce panik sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapanlar\u0131n bug\u00fcn nerede durdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek \u00f6\u011fretici. Ben d\u00fczenli ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutarl\u0131 BTC al\u0131m\u0131ma devam ettim. Ne haziranda d\u00fc\u015ferken satt\u0131m ne de a\u011fustosta y\u00fckselirken tempoyu art\u0131rd\u0131m. Maliyet ortalamas\u0131 yapman\u0131n anlam\u0131 da tam olarak bu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toparlayacak olursam,<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"703\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-130018.png?resize=1024%2C703&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3714\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-130018.png?resize=1024%2C703&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-130018.png?resize=300%2C206&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-130018.png?resize=768%2C527&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-130018.png?w=1223&amp;ssl=1 1223w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00c7izgi $ Baz\u0131nda, Mavi \u00c7izgi ise TL Baz\u0131nda Varl\u0131k De\u011ferini G\u00f6steriyor<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>BIST 100&#8217;\u00fcn TL baz\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm %11, toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm ise %7.4 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Dolar baz\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ise %5.75 oldu. Yurt i\u00e7inde ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131, risk primi geriledi ve Borsa \u0130stanbul aylard\u0131r g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi bir ivme yakalad\u0131. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ise haziranda ba\u015flayan yapay zeka d\u00fczeltmesi kapand\u0131, alt\u0131n, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ve Bitcoin ayn\u0131 anda sert y\u00fckseldi. Sonra Warsh konu\u015ftu ve ay son iki i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde renk de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"172\" height=\"179\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-090113.png?resize=172%2C179&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3715\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn i\u00e7inde tablo b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olumluydu. T\u00fcpra\u015f ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7osu ve marj beklentisindeki yukar\u0131 revizyonla ay\u0131n y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 oldu. Reysa\u015f ise son hafta rallisiyle ona neredeyse yeti\u015fti. CVK bedelli sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tamamlad\u0131 ve alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fle birlikte d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f bazda iki haneli getiri verdi. Turcas da rafineri zincirinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131ndan pay\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130\u015f Yat\u0131r\u0131m zay\u0131f bilan\u00e7oyla negatif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131, Anadolu Sigorta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7oya ra\u011fmen kazanc\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi, Tat G\u0131da ise yerinde sayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"374\" height=\"341\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-090842.png?resize=374%2C341&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3716\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-090842.png?w=374&amp;ssl=1 374w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-09-01-090842.png?resize=300%2C274&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 374px) 100vw, 374px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr aylar bana hep ayn\u0131 \u015feyi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. K\u00f6t\u00fc aylarda satmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, iyi aylar\u0131n da sahibi oluyor. Haziranda ve temmuzda geri veren, a\u011fustosta telafi eden ayn\u0131 portf\u00f6y. De\u011fi\u015fen tek \u015fey benim ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m de\u011fil, ne yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m oldu. Portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki \u015firketlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olara, rekabet avantajlar\u0131na ve sa\u011flam y\u00f6netime sahip. Volatiliteye tak\u0131lmadan yoluma devam ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herkese selamlar. Yeni bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funa ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 98 ay, hedefime ula\u015fal\u0131 ise 35 ay ge\u00e7mi\u015f. Ge\u00e7en ay temmuzu bir&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[34],"tags":[46],"class_list":["post-3697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-portfoy","tag-portfoy-durumu","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Gemini_Generated_Image_vmpyffvmpyffvmpy-scaled.jpg?fit=2560%2C1429&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3697","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3697"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3697\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3717,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3697\/revisions\/3717"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}