{"id":3681,"date":"2026-08-03T15:20:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T12:20:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/?p=3681"},"modified":"2026-08-03T15:20:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T12:20:17","slug":"temmuz-2026-sonu-portfoy-durumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/03\/temmuz-2026-sonu-portfoy-durumu\/","title":{"rendered":"Temmuz 2026 Sonu Portf\u00f6y Durumu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Herkese selamlar. Yeni bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funa ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 97 ay, hedefime ula\u015fal\u0131 ise 34 ay ge\u00e7mi\u015f. Ge\u00e7en ay haziran\u0131 bir ayr\u0131\u015fma ay\u0131 diye tan\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m. Temmuz ise tam anlam\u0131yla bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ay\u0131 oldu. Haziranda ne konu\u015ftuysak neredeyse hepsi bu ay tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bar\u0131\u015f r\u00fczgar\u0131 yerini yeni bir gerilime, petroldeki \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f yerini sert bir toparlanmaya b\u0131rakt\u0131. Haziran sonunda 14.107 seviyesinden devrald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z BIST 100, temmuzda 6 Temmuz&#8217;da 14.629 ile ay i\u00e7i zirvesini denedikten sonra sert sat\u0131\u015flarla 13.216&#8217;ya kadar geriledi ve ay\u0131 13.458 seviyesinden kapatt\u0131. Yani endeks ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,7 de\u011fer kaybetti. Ama bu ay\u0131n as\u0131l hikayesi yine fiyat hareketinin kendisinde de\u011fil, petrol\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde ve bunun portf\u00f6y\u00fcmde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmada. Onu da yaz\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen k\u0131sm\u0131nda tek tek a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global geli\u015fmelere ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce ki\u015fisel taraftan biraz bahsedeyim. Temmuz ay\u0131 biraz daha r\u00f6lantide ge\u00e7en bir ay oldu benim i\u00e7in. Spora ufak bir sakatl\u0131ktan dolay\u0131 15 g\u00fcn kadar ara verdim, a\u011fustos itibariyle geri d\u00f6nece\u011fim. Havalar olduk\u00e7a s\u0131cak ge\u00e7iyor. Havuz ve i\u00e7 mekanlar kurtar\u0131c\u0131m\u0131z bu havalarda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130\u00e7erik taraf\u0131nda ise \u00fcretime devam ettim. Bu ay finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck serisine devam ettim ve 5 b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan seriyi tamamlad\u0131m. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"tr\" dir=\"ltr\">Temett\u00fc ile Pasif Gelir &#8211; B\u00f6l\u00fcm 5: Uygun Sekt\u00f6rler ve Hisseler<br>Herkese selamlar. Uzun bir yaz\u0131 dizisinin son dura\u011f\u0131na geldik. Temett\u00fcn\u00fcn ne oldu\u011funu \u00f6\u011frendik. Verim ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi tartt\u0131k. Sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u015firketin metriklerini \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131k. Yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n kartopunu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. <br>\u015eimdi b\u00fct\u00fcn\u2026<\/p>&mdash; Bay Tutumlu (@BayTutumlu) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BayTutumlu\/status\/2082073994392461645?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 28, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun yan\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131m tezlerine devam ettim. Temmuz ay\u0131nda Aydem, Atp Yaz\u0131l\u0131m, G\u00f6knur G\u0131da ve PC \u0130leti\u015fim \u015firketlerinin incelemelerini yapt\u0131m. Ayr\u0131ca gelen bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 da incelemeye devam ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/collection\/1561592\">Bay Tutumlu Yat\u0131r\u0131m Tezleri Ar\u015fiv<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Haftal\u0131k b\u00fcltenlere de devam ediyorum tabi. Finansal \u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck Kul\u00fcb\u00fc podcast&#8217;inde de yeni b\u00f6l\u00fcmler yay\u0131na girdi. Bu ay ilk b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz Ekonomik Hendek kavram\u0131 \u00fczerineydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify wp-embed-aspect-21-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n S\u0131rr\u0131: Ekonomik Hendek | F\u00d6K #48\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/0mODKa3ArOCq1FLNYMNiMY?si=GvqL6BKGS7OlhIGijat5dw&amp;utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Di\u011fer b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fczde ise biraz daha lifestyle bir konu i\u015fledik. Finansal ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k yolunda en b\u00fcy\u00fck destek\u00e7ilerimiz olan e\u015flerimiz ve ailemizle ilgili bi b\u00f6l\u00fcm yapt\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify wp-embed-aspect-21-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: E\u015finizle Ayn\u0131 Hedefte De\u011filseniz Asla Finansal \u00d6zg\u00fcr Olamazs\u0131n\u0131z | F\u00d6K #49\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/4tV8Jqn4xDfqnG1CQyinkH?si=NnqEIwwnQCy7rKrIx04yBw&amp;utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jeopolitik Geli\u015fmeler<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eimdi g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmelere d\u00f6nelim. Haziran anla\u015fman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz&#8217;\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn 73 dolara kadar geriledi\u011fi bir ay olmu\u015ftu. Doha&#8217;da teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere haz\u0131rlan\u0131l\u0131yordu ve tablo iyimserdi. Temmuzda ise bu iyimserlik k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. N\u00fckleer dosya gibi karma\u015f\u0131k ba\u015fl\u0131klarda m\u00fczakereler t\u0131kand\u0131, ate\u015fkes zemini yeniden zorlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve ay i\u00e7inde b\u00f6lgede tekrar hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme geldi. K\u0131sacas\u0131 haziranda fiyatlanan bar\u0131\u015f temett\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131 temmuzda geri al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun en somut yans\u0131mas\u0131 yine petrolde oldu. Haziran\u0131 73 dolar civar\u0131nda kapatan Brent, temmuzda yeniden yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc. B\u00f6lgedeki gerilimin artmas\u0131 ve arz endi\u015felerinin geri gelmesiyle fiyat ay ortas\u0131nda 95 dolara kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ay sonuna do\u011fru bir miktar soluklanarak 88 dolar civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131. Yani ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20&#8217;lik bir y\u00fckseli\u015f geldi ve petrol, haziranda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri ald\u0131. Bu bizim i\u00e7in iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir tablo. Bir yandan petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fi enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k taraf\u0131nda haziranda konu\u015ftu\u011fumuz olumlu havay\u0131 bozuyor, di\u011fer yandan rafineri taraf\u0131nda T\u00fcpra\u015f gibi \u015firketler i\u00e7in bamba\u015fka bir hikaye anlam\u0131na geliyor. Ona birazdan gelece\u011fim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"352\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-1.png?resize=1024%2C352&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-1.png?resize=1024%2C352&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-1.png?resize=300%2C103&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-1.png?resize=768%2C264&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-1.png?resize=600%2C206&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-1.png?w=1438&amp;ssl=1 1438w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Yurti\u00e7i Piyasalar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye d\u00f6necek olursak, BIST 100 temmuza g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131 ama ay\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na direnemedi. Endeks ay i\u00e7inde 14.629 ile zirve denemesi yapt\u0131ktan sonra kademeli bi\u00e7imde geriledi, ay sonuna do\u011fru k\u00fcresel teknoloji sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131 ve 13.216 seviyesine kadar indi. Ay\u0131 13.458&#8217;den kapatt\u0131. Ayl\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f TL baz\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Dolar kurunun 46,65&#8217;ten 47,53&#8217;e gelmesiyle, yani liran\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,9 de\u011fer kaybetmesiyle, dolar baz\u0131nda kay\u0131p yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6,5&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. BIST 30 ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6,7 ile endeksin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Petrol\u00fcn geri d\u00f6nmesi ve dezenflasyon hikayesinin bir miktar sekteye u\u011framas\u0131, haziranda pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fan Borsa \u0130stanbul&#8217;da bu ay tam tersi bir hava yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"409\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image.png?resize=1024%2C409&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image.png?resize=1024%2C409&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image.png?resize=300%2C120&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image.png?resize=768%2C307&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image.png?resize=600%2C239&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image.png?w=1438&amp;ssl=1 1438w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Her zamanki notumu yine d\u00fc\u015feyim. Ki\u015filer kendilerini endeksle de\u011fil d\u00f6viz veya enflasyon gibi bir enstr\u00fcmanla k\u0131yaslamal\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc endeksin i\u00e7eri\u011fi sabit de\u011fil ve birka\u00e7 hisse baz\u0131 aylar tabloyu tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u015fekillendiriyor. Bu ay bu durumun tersini de ya\u015fad\u0131k, endeks d\u00fc\u015ferken portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki baz\u0131 \u015firketler \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>TCMB taraf\u0131nda 23 Temmuz&#8217;daki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizi beklentilere paralel y\u00fczde 37&#8217;de sabit tutuldu. Gecelik bor\u00e7 verme y\u00fczde 40, gecelik bor\u00e7lanma ise y\u00fczde 35,5 seviyesinde korundu. Karar metninde enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminin haziranda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir miktar geriledi\u011fi belirtildi, ancak \u00f6nc\u00fc verilerin temmuzda ana e\u011filimin ge\u00e7ici olarak y\u00fckselece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fi vurguland\u0131. Petroldeki toparlanma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse bu uyar\u0131 yerinde. Haziranda h\u0131zlanan dezenflasyon hikayesi, temmuzda enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fle biraz g\u00f6lgelendi. \u0130lk faiz indirimi beklentimi hala koruyorum ama bunun zamanlamas\u0131 art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde petrol\u00fcn seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131. Sonbahar penceresi a\u00e7\u0131k, fakat enerji taraf\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k bu pencereyi \u00f6ne ya da arkaya itebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-3.png?resize=1024%2C483&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3685\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-3.png?resize=1024%2C483&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-3.png?resize=300%2C142&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-3.png?resize=768%2C362&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-3.png?resize=600%2C283&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-3.png?w=1223&amp;ssl=1 1223w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda haziran verisi 3 Temmuz&#8217;da a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ayl\u0131k man\u015fet y\u00fczde 0,99, y\u0131ll\u0131k ise y\u00fczde 32,11 oldu. Y\u0131ll\u0131k oran may\u0131staki y\u00fczde 32,61&#8217;den 0,50 puan geriledi ve 12 ayl\u0131k ortalama y\u00fczde 32,03 seviyesine indi. Yani ayl\u0131k enflasyonun yeniden y\u00fczde 1&#8217;in alt\u0131na inmesiyle haziranda bekledi\u011fim rahatlama ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Temmuz enflasyonu ise %1.78 ile web t\u00fcfe ve ito verilerinin alt\u0131na kal\u0131rken ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131la g\u00f6re az da olsa iyile\u015fme var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"976\" height=\"862\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=976%2C862&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3686\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?w=976&amp;ssl=1 976w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=300%2C265&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=768%2C678&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=600%2C530&amp;ssl=1 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 976px) 100vw, 976px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ki\u015fisel Portf\u00f6y<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Temmuz ay\u0131nda portf\u00f6y\u00fcmde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir hareket yapmad\u0131m. Ay i\u00e7erisinde %30 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckselen RYGYO ve TUPRS hisselerimden bir miktar k\u0131rparak RGYAS ekledim. uzun zaman\u0131r takip etti\u011fim bir \u015firketti ve bu \u015firket hakk\u0131nda bir yat\u0131r\u0131m tezi haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m belki hat\u0131rlars\u0131n\u0131z. \u015eirketin g\u00fcncel a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %4.4 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"499\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224051.png?resize=847%2C499&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3687\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224051.png?w=847&amp;ssl=1 847w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224051.png?resize=300%2C177&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224051.png?resize=768%2C452&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224051.png?resize=600%2C353&amp;ssl=1 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda d\u00fczenli BTC al\u0131m\u0131na devam ettim. Eurobond kuponlar\u0131n\u0131 ise nakit pozisyonunda tutmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcm. Petrol\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fcp piyasalar\u0131n yeniden gerildi\u011fi b\u00f6yle aylarda so\u011fukkanl\u0131 kalmak ve uzun vadeli plana sad\u0131k kalmak en do\u011fru strateji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u015eimdi portf\u00f6ydeki \u015firketlerle ilgili temmuz ay\u0131 geli\u015fmelerine bakal\u0131m. T\u00fcm \u015firketleri yazmayaca\u011f\u0131m, sadece \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme olanlar\u0131 payla\u015fmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Bu ay a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde petrol\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TUPRS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcpra\u015f bu ay portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k ara y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 oldu. Hisse temmuzda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30 de\u011fer kazand\u0131, 227,5 seviyesinden 295,25&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ay i\u00e7inde 320 seviyesini bile g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bunun ana sebebi net, petrol\u00fcn 73 dolardan tekrar 88 dolara d\u00f6nmesi ve piyasan\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131. Nisandan beri s\u00f6yledi\u011fim \u015fey buydu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizinin, bo\u011faz\u0131n kapal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemin ve petrol\u00fcn 110 dolardan 73 dolara inip tekrar yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00fct\u00fcn o yolculu\u011fun as\u0131l etkisi ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7osunda g\u00f6r\u00fcnecek. Kriz de, arz \u015foku da, fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bu \u00e7eyre\u011fe denk geldi. Y\u00fckseli\u015f hacimli ve kademeli geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir spek\u00fclatif hareket de\u011fil, marj beklentisine dayal\u0131 ger\u00e7ek bir yeniden fiyatlama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"tr\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/TUPRS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#TUPRS<\/a> a\u011fustos sunumu geldi.<br>Ham petrol yatay dururken \u00fcr\u00fcn marjlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Motorin marj\u0131 haziranda 45,8 dolard\u0131, temmuzda 75 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Jet yak\u0131t\u0131 42,1&#39;den 64,1&#39;e, benzin 31,4&#39;ten 43,9 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<br>A\u011f\u0131r-hafif ham petrol makas\u0131nda da y\u00f6n T\u00fcpra\u015f&#39;\u0131n lehine d\u00f6nmeye devam\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/d5NXaoIaO3\">pic.twitter.com\/d5NXaoIaO3<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bay Tutumlu (@BayTutumlu) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BayTutumlu\/status\/2084222137984819254?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 3, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>29 Temmuz&#8217;da Moody&#8217;s periyodik g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesini tamamlad\u0131 ve \u015firketin Ba2 seviyesindeki notunu ve dura\u011fan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7osu takvimi de belli oldu, ay i\u00e7indeki as\u0131l kritik geli\u015fme o rakamlar olacak. Crack marjlar\u0131n\u0131 ve stok etkisini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fim. Y\u00f6netimin muhafazakar 2026 hedeflerinin hala ge\u00e7ilebilir oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>GLYHO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global Yat\u0131r\u0131m Holding hisse taraf\u0131nda bu ay tam tersini ya\u015fad\u0131, hisse yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 11 geriledi ve 18,21&#8217;den 16,28&#8217;e indi. Ama burada alt\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131nca \u00e7izmek istedi\u011fim bir ayr\u0131m var. Fiyat d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, tez ise g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye devam etti. 16 Temmuz&#8217;da a\u00e7\u0131klanan haziran yolcu istatistikleri gayet g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc. Konsolide gemi say\u0131s\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 9, konsolide yolcu hareketleri ise y\u00fczde 10 artt\u0131. Konsolide olmayan limanlar dahil haziranda toplam 660 gemi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 milyon yolcu a\u011f\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f, may\u0131s doluluk oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 105 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. Yani may\u0131staki ivme haziranda daha da h\u0131zland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"448\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-5.png?resize=1024%2C448&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3688\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-5.png?resize=1024%2C448&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-5.png?resize=300%2C131&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-5.png?resize=768%2C336&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-5.png?resize=600%2C262&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-5.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As\u0131l \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme liman ortakl\u0131k yap\u0131s\u0131nda oldu. 14 Temmuz&#8217;da \u015firket, Royal Caribbean&#8217;\u0131n Ku\u015fadas\u0131 Liman\u0131&#8217;n\u0131 i\u015fleten Ege Port&#8217;taki y\u00fczde 9,52&#8217;lik pay\u0131n\u0131 devrald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve buradaki pay\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 90,47&#8217;den y\u00fczde 99,99&#8217;a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Lizbon Liman\u0131&#8217;nda da Royal Caribbean&#8217;\u0131n y\u00fczde 20&#8217;lik pay\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 almak i\u00e7in s\u00f6zle\u015fme imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu devirle Lizbon&#8217;daki pay\u0131n y\u00fczde 50&#8217;den y\u00fczde 60&#8217;a \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve liman\u0131n \u00f6zkaynak y\u00f6ntemi yerine tam konsolidasyona dahil edilece\u011fini \u00f6\u011frendik. Yani \u015firket sa\u011flam g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc limanlarda ortakl\u0131k pay\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve stratejik kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Benim tezimin \u00e7ekirde\u011finde kruvaziyer trafi\u011finin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve liman portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcn derinle\u015fmesi vard\u0131, bu iki ad\u0131m tam da o taraf\u0131 besliyor. Hissedeki geri \u00e7ekilme b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde haziranda kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 16&#8217;n\u0131n geri verilmesi, genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131 ve petrol\u00fcn y\u00fckselmesiyle yak\u0131t maliyeti endi\u015fesinden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Operasyonda bir bozulma g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorum, takip listemin ba\u015f\u0131nda tutmaya devam ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TRGYO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Torunlar GYO temmuzda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6,3 geriledi. Petrol\u00fcn geri d\u00f6nmesiyle faiz indirim beklentisinin \u00f6telenmesi GYO&#8217;lar i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli bir olumsuzluk, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc bu \u015firketlerin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczgar\u0131. 14 Temmuz&#8217;da \u015firket portf\u00f6y\u00fcndeki gayrimenkullerin g\u00fcncel de\u011ferleme raporlar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Mall of \u0130stanbul, Torium, Korupark, Forum Mersin ve Forum Kayseri gibi ana varl\u0131klar\u0131n y\u0131l ortas\u0131 de\u011ferlemeleri portf\u00f6y de\u011ferini g\u00fcncelledi. Kira geliri kanal\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olan \u015firketler bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde konjonkt\u00fcrel bask\u0131ya ra\u011fmen dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. \u015eirketin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k net nakit yarat\u0131m plan\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m tezimin \u00e7ekirde\u011fi olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>RYGYO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reysa\u015f GYO bu ay portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc halkalar\u0131ndan biri oldu ve getirimi yukar\u0131 \u00e7eken as\u0131l isimlerden biriydi. Ayn\u0131 sekt\u00f6rden Torunlar d\u00fc\u015ferken Reysa\u015f tam ters y\u00f6ne gitti, hisse temmuzda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 28 de\u011fer kazand\u0131, 29,9&#8217;dan 38,3&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ay i\u00e7inde 40 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Y\u00fckseli\u015f o kadar sertti ki 31 Temmuz&#8217;da Borsa \u0130stanbul ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyat ve miktar hareketi nedeniyle \u015firketten a\u00e7\u0131klama istedi, \u015firket de kamuya a\u00e7\u0131klanmam\u0131\u015f \u00f6zel bir durum bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"445\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-6.png?resize=1024%2C445&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3689\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-6.png?resize=1024%2C445&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-6.png?resize=300%2C131&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-6.png?resize=768%2C334&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-6.png?resize=600%2C261&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-6.png?w=1439&amp;ssl=1 1439w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Operasyonel tarafta da ilerleme s\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2 Temmuz&#8217;da Adana Sar\u0131\u00e7am&#8217;daki arsada yakla\u015f\u0131k 37 bin metrekare kapal\u0131 alanl\u0131 yeni bir depo i\u00e7in in\u015faat imar izni al\u0131nd\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar tamamlanmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. 30 Temmuz&#8217;da ise Sakarya 1. Organize Sanayi B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;ndeki ta\u015f\u0131nmaz\u0131n iskan belgesi ve tapu devri tamamlanarak \u015firket ad\u0131na tescil edildi. Nisanda genel kuruldaki temett\u00fc da\u011f\u0131tmama karar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ili\u015fkileri ele\u015ftirim s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, ama yat\u0131r\u0131m hikayesinin \u00e7ekirde\u011fi olan depo yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n portf\u00f6y de\u011ferini ve kira gelirlerini ileriye ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 aynen devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CVKMD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CVK Madencilik hisse taraf\u0131nda sakin ge\u00e7irdi, yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,6 gerileyerek 38,84&#8217;ten 37,82&#8217;ye indi. Haziranda alt\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle en zay\u0131f halkam olmu\u015ftu, temmuzda ise alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 stabilize oldu ve ayl\u0131k bazda hafif art\u0131da kapand\u0131, bu da hisse \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Ama as\u0131l hikaye fiyatta de\u011fil, operasyonel tarafta ya\u015fanan yo\u011funlukta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu ay \u015firket b\u00fcy\u00fcme finansman\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam bi\u00e7imde kilitledi. Trafigura ile 21 Temmuz&#8217;da geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 stratejik i\u015f birli\u011fi \u00e7er\u00e7evesi imzaland\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 27 Temmuz&#8217;da 70 milyon dolarl\u0131k bir \u00f6n \u00f6deme s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve masraflar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra net yakla\u015f\u0131k 69,98 milyon dolar, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,31 milyar TL, 29 Temmuz&#8217;da \u015firket hesaplar\u0131na ge\u00e7ti. Bu kaynak Sar\u0131alan Alt\u0131n \u0130\u015fletmesi, Yenipazar Polimetalik Maden \u0130\u015fletmesi ve krom operasyonlar\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lacak ve geri \u00f6demesi \u00fcr\u00fcn teslimatlar\u0131ndan mahsup edilecek. Yani seyreltmeye yol a\u00e7mayan, off-take \u00fczerinden kapat\u0131lan bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme finansman\u0131. Bunun yan\u0131nda 10 Temmuz&#8217;da Sar\u0131alan sahas\u0131nda kamula\u015ft\u0131rma ba\u015fvurusu yap\u0131ld\u0131, 8 Temmuz&#8217;da MAPEG ihalelerinden yeni ruhsatlar al\u0131nd\u0131 ve Yenipazar projesinde ilerleme s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-7.png?resize=1024%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3690\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-7.png?resize=1024%2C407&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-7.png?resize=300%2C119&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-7.png?resize=768%2C305&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-7.png?resize=600%2C238&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-7.png?w=1434&amp;ssl=1 1434w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bir de not d\u00fc\u015fmem gereken bir geli\u015fme var. 29 Temmuz&#8217;da \u015firketin y\u00fczde 170 oran\u0131ndaki bedelli sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin SPK ba\u015fvurusu onayland\u0131. Sermaye 1,4 milyar TL&#8217;den 3,78 milyar TL&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor, r\u00fc\u00e7han fiyat\u0131 1 TL olarak belirlendi ve kullan\u0131lmayan paylar i\u00e7in ana orta\u011f\u0131n al\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc var. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fcme projelerini fonlamak i\u00e7in ciddi bir sermaye ad\u0131m\u0131. Trafigura \u00f6n \u00f6demesiyle birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u015firketin Sar\u0131alan ve Yenipazar yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TRCAS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turcas i\u00e7in temmuzda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan geli\u015fme 20 Temmuz&#8217;da hissenin BIST Temett\u00fc ve BIST Temett\u00fc 25 endekslerine dahil edilmesi oldu. Bu t\u00fcr endeks dahil edilmeleri, temett\u00fc verimi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firketler i\u00e7in olumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fck kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc. Hisse ay i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,4 geriledi, yani genel piyasaya g\u00f6re diren\u00e7li kald\u0131. Turcas bir holding oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de\u011feri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Shell &amp; Turcas ve RWE &amp; Turcas gibi \u00f6zkaynak y\u00f6ntemiyle de\u011ferlenen i\u015ftiraklerden geliyor. Bu ay ayr\u0131ca bir temett\u00fc ya da kupon giri\u015fi olmad\u0131, yeni pozisyon olarak takibe devam ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ISMEN<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130\u015f Yat\u0131r\u0131m taraf\u0131nda konjonkt\u00fcr \u015firketin aleyhine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam etti, hisse temmuzda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,3 geriledi. Faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6telenmesi ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geri d\u00f6nmemesi arac\u0131 kurum karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 unsuru olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ay sonuna do\u011fru k\u00fcresel tarafta ya\u015fanan sert teknoloji sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 yeniden bozdu, bu da kredili i\u015flem hacimlerindeki toparlanmay\u0131 geciktiriyor. \u015eirket cephesinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan yap\u0131sal bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131. Pazar pay\u0131 taraf\u0131n\u0131 dikkatle izleyece\u011fim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Eurobond Portf\u00f6y\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eurobond portf\u00f6y\u00fcnde temmuzda pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yapmad\u0131m. Ay i\u00e7inde toplam 1066 $ kupon \u00f6demesi ald\u0131m.  Haziran sonunda 225 baz puana kadar gerileyen T\u00fcrkiye 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS&#8217;i, temmuzda petrol\u00fcn geri d\u00f6nmesi ve k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki bozulmayla birlikte bir miktar yukar\u0131 geldi. Yine de tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131labilecek bir b\u00f6lgedeyiz. Eurobond spreadlerinde de paralel bir hareket g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Kuponlar\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda nakit olarak biriktirmeye devam ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224326.png?resize=1024%2C392&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3692\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224326.png?resize=1024%2C392&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224326.png?resize=300%2C115&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224326.png?resize=768%2C294&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224326.png?resize=600%2C230&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Ekran-goruntusu-2026-08-02-224326.png?w=1027&amp;ssl=1 1027w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ABD Portf\u00f6y\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu ay\u0131n di\u011fer \u00f6nemli hikayesi yine yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fand\u0131. Haziranda yapay zeka temas\u0131ndaki ilk ger\u00e7ek d\u00fczeltmeyi konu\u015fmu\u015ftuk, teknoloji hisseleri, alt\u0131n ve Bitcoin ayn\u0131 anda sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Temmuz ise dalgal\u0131 ama k\u0131smen toparlanan bir ay oldu. Haziranda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 17 d\u00fc\u015fen Microsoft, bu ay bulut i\u015fi Azure&#8217;daki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 16 y\u00fckselerek kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri ald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yar\u0131 iletken taraf\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k s\u00fcrd\u00fc, Nasdaq ay ortas\u0131nda alt\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisi ya\u015fad\u0131ktan sonra 30 Temmuz&#8217;da toparland\u0131. Ay sonunda S&amp;P 500 ayl\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,1 ile neredeyse yatay kapat\u0131rken, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Nasdaq yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n teknolojiden de\u011fer hisselerine rotasyonu s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in Dow Jones ise d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc kazan\u00e7l\u0131 ay\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"775\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-8.png?resize=1024%2C775&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3691\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-8.png?resize=1024%2C775&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-8.png?resize=300%2C227&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-8.png?resize=768%2C582&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-8.png?resize=1536%2C1163&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-8.png?resize=600%2C454&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-8.png?w=1623&amp;ssl=1 1623w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed cephesinde 29 Temmuz&#8217;daki toplant\u0131da faiz 3,5 ile 3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131, bu \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci sabit karar oldu. \u0130\u015fin ilgin\u00e7 taraf\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lge ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde muhalefet \u015ferhi koymas\u0131, yani tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n indirim de\u011fil art\u0131r\u0131m ekseninde d\u00f6nmesi. Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh enflasyonu bir tercih olarak tan\u0131mlamaya ve y\u00f6nlendirici s\u00f6zl\u00fc rehberli\u011fi kald\u0131rmaya devam ediyor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali piyasa taraf\u0131ndan ciddi bi\u00e7imde fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bu tablo, haziranda dile getirdi\u011fim temkinli duru\u015fun neden \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu tekrar g\u00f6steriyor. Ben uzun vadeli bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 olarak d\u00fczenli VOO al\u0131mlar\u0131ma devam ediyorum, fakat teknoloji yo\u011funlu\u011fu y\u00fcksek olan SPYG fonum bu ay da VOO&#8217;ya k\u0131yasla daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131. De\u011ferlemelerin bu kadar gerildi\u011fi bir ortamda pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fctmek yerine d\u00fczenli ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc al\u0131mla ilerlemeyi tercih ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"754\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-9.png?resize=1024%2C754&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3693\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-9.png?resize=1024%2C754&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-9.png?resize=300%2C221&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-9.png?resize=768%2C566&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-9.png?resize=600%2C442&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-9.png?w=1314&amp;ssl=1 1314w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin taraf\u0131nda ise bir miktar nefes al\u0131nd\u0131. Haziranda 58 bin dolar civar\u0131na kadar gerileyen fiyat, temmuzda k\u0131smen toparlanarak 63 bin dolar \u00fczerine, yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6 ila 8 art\u0131yla d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Fed&#8217;in \u015fahin tonu ve faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri hala bask\u0131 unsuru, ama sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan gelen bu stabilizasyon fena de\u011fil. Ben d\u00fczenli ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutarl\u0131 BTC al\u0131m\u0131ma devam ettim. Bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemler benim gibi maliyet ortalamas\u0131 yapan ve on y\u0131ll\u0131k ufku olan biri i\u00e7in panik de\u011fil disiplin gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toparlayacak olursam,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BIST 100&#8217;\u00fcn TL baz\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,7 geriledi\u011fi temmuz ay\u0131nda hisse senedi portf\u00f6y\u00fcm %3.6, toplam portf\u00f6y\u00fcm ise TL baz\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2.1, dolar baz\u0131nda %0.3 artt\u0131. Yani endeks d\u00fc\u015ferken portf\u00f6y\u00fcm pozitif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131, bunda da az \u00f6nce anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131m T\u00fcpra\u015f ve Reysa\u015f&#8217;taki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n pay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck. Bu ay\u0131n karakteri tek kelimeyle tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Haziranda ne konu\u015ftuysak neredeyse hepsi ters y\u00f6ne gitti. Bar\u0131\u015f yerini yeni bir gerilime, petroldeki \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f yerini sert bir toparlanmaya, dezenflasyon ivmesi yerini yeniden temkine b\u0131rakt\u0131. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ise haziranda ba\u015flayan yapay zeka d\u00fczeltmesi tam bir toparlanmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi, dalgal\u0131 bir denge halinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcn i\u00e7inde de bu ay \u00e7ok net bir ayr\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fad\u0131m. Petrol\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc T\u00fcpra\u015f&#8217;\u0131 ay\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k ara y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 yapt\u0131, Reysa\u015f ise g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli ya\u015fayarak getirimi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k faiz ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 Global, Torunlar ve Tat G\u0131da konjonkt\u00fcrel bask\u0131yla geri \u00e7ekildi. Benim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olan bu hareketlerin ge\u00e7ici konjonkt\u00fcr m\u00fc yoksa kal\u0131c\u0131 bir tez bozulmas\u0131 m\u0131 oldu\u011funu ay\u0131rt etmek. T\u00fcpra\u015f&#8217;ta petrol\u00fcn yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmesi tezimi bozmuyor, aksine ikinci \u00e7eyrek beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Global&#8217;de fiyat d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ama yolcu verileri ve liman ortakl\u0131k ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla tez tam tersine g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. CVK&#8217;da hisse sakin kal\u0131rken \u015firket b\u00fcy\u00fcme finansman\u0131n\u0131 kilitledi. \u015eu an i\u00e7in portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki hi\u00e7bir \u015firkette temel bir bozulma g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr aylar bana hep ayn\u0131 \u015feyi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bir ay pozitif ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131p ertesi ay geri vermek, ya da bir k\u00f6\u015fe rekor k\u0131rarken ba\u015fka bir k\u00f6\u015fenin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi borsan\u0131n do\u011fas\u0131nda var. \u00d6nemli olan g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcye de\u011fil sahip oldu\u011fun \u015firketlerin ve varl\u0131klar\u0131n ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferine bakmak. Portf\u00f6y\u00fcmdeki \u015firketlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olara, rekabet avantajlar\u0131na ve sa\u011flam y\u00f6netime sahip. Volatiliteye tak\u0131lmadan yoluma devam ediyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bay Tutumlu<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Bu yaz\u0131da payla\u015f\u0131lanlar ki\u015fisel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimdir ve yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi de\u011fildir.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Herkese selamlar. Yeni bir ay\u0131n daha sonuna geldik. Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funa ba\u015flayal\u0131 tam 97 ay, hedefime ula\u015fal\u0131 ise 34 ay ge\u00e7mi\u015f. Ge\u00e7en ay haziran\u0131 bir&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[34],"tags":[46],"class_list":["post-3681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-portfoy","tag-portfoy-durumu","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Gemini_Generated_Image_azlpyeazlpyeazlp-scaled.png?fit=2560%2C1429&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3681"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3695,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3681\/revisions\/3695"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}