{"id":30,"date":"2021-01-31T16:50:00","date_gmt":"2021-01-31T13:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/31\/piyasa-yuksekken-yatirim-yapmak\/"},"modified":"2022-05-31T14:44:43","modified_gmt":"2022-05-31T11:44:43","slug":"piyasa-yuksekken-yatirim-yapmak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/2021\/01\/31\/piyasa-yuksekken-yatirim-yapmak\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasa Y\u00fcksekken Yat\u0131r\u0131m Yapmak"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funda tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m birbirini tamamlayan ayr\u0131lmaz birer ikilidir. Tasarruf olmazsa yat\u0131r\u0131m yapamazs\u0131n\u0131z, yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmazsan\u0131z da tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131z uzun vadede erir gider. Yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparken de \u00e7e\u015fitli ara\u00e7lardan faydalan\u0131r\u0131z. Hisse senedi, tahvil, de\u011ferli metaller, gayrimenkul vb. \u0130deal olan ve t\u00fcm yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n istedi\u011fi de bunlar\u0131 ucuzdan al\u0131p pahal\u0131ya satmakt\u0131r. Fakat bu her zaman m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayabiliyor. Birincisi yukar\u0131da yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan baz\u0131lar\u0131 birbirleriyle ters orant\u0131l\u0131 hareket ederler. \u00d6rne\u011fin hisse senetleriyle tahvil faizleri aras\u0131nda belirgin bir negatif korelasyon vard\u0131r. Alt\u0131n da benzer \u015fekilde kendine has dinamikler ile hareket etse de genel olarak risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla hisse senetlerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamanlarda de\u011feri artar.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
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T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 niye yaz\u0131yorum? Son g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye borsa camias\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle de finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck hedefi olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar aras\u0131nda borsan\u0131n \u00e7ok pahaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve balon derecesinde fiyatlamalar s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve okuyorum. Buna benzer bir durum 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 ekim kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda denk gelmi\u015ftim ve ay sonu kapan\u0131\u015f yaz\u0131mda<\/a> buna yer vermi\u015ftim. O zaman ise tam tersi borsa \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc ve “T\u00fcrkiye borsas\u0131nda uzun vade yat\u0131r\u0131m olmaz” alg\u0131s\u0131 hakimdi. Aradan ge\u00e7en 1.5 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu kez de borsan\u0131n \u00e7ok pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fu konu\u015fuluyor. Bana g\u00f6re o zaman neden borsa \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken karamsarl\u0131\u011fa kap\u0131l\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmak mant\u0131ks\u0131zsa \u015fimdi de \u00e7ok y\u00fckseldi diye \u00e7\u0131kmak ayn\u0131 derecede mant\u0131ks\u0131z. Peki neden?<\/div>\n
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Tarihsel olarak kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu \u00fczere uzun vadede(30+ y\u0131l) di\u011fer t\u00fcm yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan daha fazla getiri elde etmi\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 hisse senetleri. Uzun vadede SP500 endeksinin getirisi temett\u00fcler dahil %11.5 civar\u0131nda. Buna yakla\u015fabilen bir yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 hen\u00fcz mevcut de\u011fil. Zaten d\u00fczenli olarak borsan\u0131n \u00fczerinde getiri sa\u011flanabilecek ve daha az riskli bir ara\u00e7 olsayd\u0131 \u015firketler yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak \u00f6zsermayelerini b\u00fcy\u00fctmek yerine paralar\u0131n\u0131 risksiz mevduata, tahvile veya alt\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131rd\u0131. Reel hayatta ticaret var olduk\u00e7a, en karl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131n\u0131n borsa olaca\u011f\u0131na dair \u015f\u00fcphem yok.<\/div>\n
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Hisse senetlerine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolcular\u0131 olarak bir\u00e7o\u011fumuz \u00f6mr\u00fcm\u00fcz boyunca hisse senetlerinin sahibi olaca\u011f\u0131z. K\u0131sa vadede piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin ederek bundan fayda sa\u011flayabilece\u011fimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek, en b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 fon y\u00f6neticilerinin bile riskli ve gereksiz buldu\u011fu bir i\u015flem iken bunu bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar olarak bizlerin yapabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek bana mant\u0131ks\u0131z geliyor. Vanguard yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131n\u0131n kurucusu John G. Bogle \u015f\u00f6yle diyor.<\/div>\n
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“Piyasa tepedeyken satmak ve dipteyken almak \u00e7ok g\u00fczel olurdu fakat 55 y\u0131ll\u0131k i\u015f hayat\u0131m\u0131nda sadece bunun nas\u0131l yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilen birini de\u011fil, bunun nas\u0131l yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilen birini tan\u0131yan birini de g\u00f6rmedim.”<\/div>\n
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Yine d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131ndan birisi olan Warren Buffett piyasa zamanlamas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/div>\n
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“Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131n\u0131n zaman zaman d\u00fc\u015fmesi do\u011fald\u0131r. K\u00f6t\u00fc bir piyasadan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in geli\u015ftirilmi\u015f bir sistem de yoktur. Piyasa zamanlamas\u0131 yapmadan bunu yapamazs\u0131n\u0131z ki bu da \u00e7ok ahmak\u00e7a bir davran\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Mucize beklemeden, istikrarl\u0131 tasarruf yaparak muhafazakar yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak gidilecek tek yoldur.”<\/div>\n
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Tabiki her yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ki\u015fisel sebeplerle bazen kendisini rahat hissetmedi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler olabilir. B\u00f6yle durumlarda bana g\u00f6re hisse senedi yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yeterince vakit ay\u0131ramama ya da psikolojik olarak buna haz\u0131r olmama durumlar\u0131 varsa i\u015fi profesyonellere b\u0131rakarak yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 ya da endeks fonlar\u0131 tercih edilmeli. E\u011fer b\u00f6yle bir durum s\u00f6z konusu de\u011filse ve sadece fiyatlar\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsan\u0131z al\u0131m yapmay\u0131 kesebilirsiniz. Ben son birka\u00e7 ayda al\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131 iyice azaltt\u0131m ve nakit biriktirme s\u00fcrecindeyim. Bu nakiti olas\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme veya kriz anlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlardan portf\u00f6ye nakit enjekte etme f\u0131rsat\u0131 tan\u0131yacak. Nakit tutman\u0131n da bir f\u0131rsat maliyeti var tabiki fakat bu tamamen nakitten olu\u015fan bir portf\u00f6y\u00fcn f\u0131rsat maliyetinin yan\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/div>\n
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Bazen de \u015f\u00f6yle bir durumla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilirsiniz. Bir enstr\u00fcman\u0131n de\u011ferinin beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 neticesinde ideal portf\u00f6y a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rebilirsiniz. \u00d6rne\u011fin benim ideal portf\u00f6y a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131mda %65 hisse senedi, %30 eurobond ve %5 nakit olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015flerden dolay\u0131 hisse senedi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %75’i a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. B\u00f6yle bir durumda dengeleme(rebalancing) maksad\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015f yapabilirsiniz. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda takip etti\u011fim bir\u00e7ok finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcr blogger bu y\u00f6ntemle y\u0131lda bir portf\u00f6ylerini dengeliyor ve risklerini minimize etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar.<\/div>\n
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Toparlarsam,<\/div>\n
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Varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funa yeni ba\u015flayanlar\u0131n veya hen\u00fcz istedi\u011fi birikim seviyesine gelememi\u015f bireylerin istemedi\u011fi bir durum fakat bu durumu da avantaja \u00e7evirebiliriz. Borsa sab\u0131rs\u0131zlar\u0131n sab\u0131rl\u0131lara para aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerdir s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn hakk\u0131n\u0131 vererek sab\u0131rl\u0131 olmal\u0131 ve alaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hisseleri se\u00e7erek almal\u0131y\u0131z. Borsadan uzak kalmak yerine yeni al\u0131m yapmay\u0131 ertelemek veya ters korelasyonlu enstr\u00fcmanlara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak da bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Sonu\u00e7 olarak yaz\u0131m\u0131 \u015fu eski deyi\u015fle bitirmek istiyorum.<\/div>\n
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“Time in the market beats timing the market.” yani “Piyasan\u0131n i\u00e7inde kalmak, piyasay\u0131 tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 her zaman alteder.”<\/div>\n
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Okudu\u011funuz i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim.<\/div>\n
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Bay Tutumlu<\/div>\n
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<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finansal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck yolculu\u011funda tasarruf ve yat\u0131r\u0131m birbirini tamamlayan ayr\u0131lmaz birer ikilidir. Tasarruf olmazsa yat\u0131r\u0131m yapamazs\u0131n\u0131z, yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmazsan\u0131z da tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131z uzun vadede erir gider. Yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparken…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":276,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[5,3,7,8,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-borsa","category-erken-emeklilik","category-eurobond","category-finansal-ozgurluk","category-fire","entry","double"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/baytutumlu.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/entrepreneur-1340649_1920.jpeg?fit=640%2C452&ssl=1","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":277,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30\/revisions\/277"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/276"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baytutumlu.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}